DynamicTrader

Key reversal? DDHigh 10580 support or resistence?

2010-01-20T21:18:00.047+01:00

24FEBDJI: Trading at BDD 10440, acting as the short term resistence level.

20JANDJI: Trading at DDHigh 10580, acting as the short term support level. If the DJI breaks DDHigh on the downside, short term support level is BDD 10440 ( -1,4% ).

Since DDHigh is the long term resistence level ( from "week chart" ), I do not get any deviations at higher levels in my modell. Taken this into consideration, it is an exremely nice risk reward, selling this market. DDLow 9580 (-9,5%) appears as the long term support level.

Awaiting the market to trade at BDD 10440, as the WVAP ( Volume-Weighted Average Price ), for 2010, and to bottom out in late April-May ( " Sell in May, fly away" ) at DDLow 9580. If this is a Key Reversal and the BDD fails to support the market, I would expect a sell off, with the target at DDLow ( -9,5% ).

Whats happening next?

PAY BACK!!
" The Invisible hand, suddely gets very Visible " ( PAY BACK! ): Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a system where the "strongest survive". Now when the goverments all over the world, has bailed out the the weak, it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries, will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let nature run its course, and the weak go down with it! No its PAY BACK time!

Rescent earnings repports show that the equity owners has to get used to lower yields, in the financial sector especially. When FED overflows the market with greenbacks, it finally ends up at different EBITDA`s showing inflated corporate growth. When the FED now has its rate range at 0-0,25 and the dynamics of export/import balance between Mother China and US is gapping, the FED has no instruments, other than printing money, and buying expencive ( already inflated ) equities and bonds.

USD appears to be the new carrie trade, inflating allready stretched commodity and assets prices, for net. importing nations, with low organic growth in GDP and without high government spending, especially, this could be devastating:(Y = C + I + G + (X − M)). This phenomenon could in the end, shut down "parts" of Capitalizm, as we see it today. Due to the fact that the china man ( google money ), with their underlying growth prospectus at high/low 12%/8% y/y, and with their undervalued Yuan, always can afford higher commodity prices , and with that strangle the US economy, outpacing them exponentially, beeing the "derivative" ( high delta ) of the US economy.

I`m not an expert, so I`ll let them speculate on whats gone happen to the market and macro fundamentlas. I do not know if we in the future have to look at capitalism in a different way, with different spreadsheets, models and theories, but to me it looks like mother earth can`t handle much more input to the pyramide (( a new middle class in the east, where the productivity growth input is Oil ( "Peak oil theory")), without technological progress. Boom or Bust? Iran next?

Buy Tech!

TMTMAN

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the leassons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides of everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side!"

Jesse Livermore

Seeking Alpha17feb: Is China Tightening? Not Really

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Macro Update.

2009-12-10T13:32:00.005+01:00

Some of my thoughts:

" The Invisible hand, suddely gets very Visible " ( extension of the Tarp ): Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world, further decide to extend the bailout program, protecting the "weak", it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!

Typically we often experience that in a Bull Marked, traders sell their positions before the weekend, so they can have a good nights sleep, and don’t worry about their longs. This “fear” creates a short term sell off. In a Bear Marked the same traders cover their shorts of the same reason. Almost every broker, trader and investor have the same “Devils eye“ on the futures screen during the day, and taking their bets of the same reasons. I believe it is important to find out what is the contrarian side of the marked, all tough it hurts some times. When your stomach says BUY, you should actually SELL, and vice versa.

Short term USD strength continues, despite of the low interest rates.... This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect.

Inflationary Holocaust Jim Rogers: Watch the video! (click)

From the book by James Grant: “Market Miscalculates”:
"Economics, mistaking itself for physics, is wont to turn up its nose at history, but the past has much to teach"; "as dress on Wall Street has become more casual, so have the monetary arrangements... the gold standard and swallowtail coats have given way to Greenspan and open-neck shirts"

Lately the focus has turned from corporate fundamentals to macro outlooks, resulting in a change of newsflow, to the negative ( USD, Dubai, Inflation, New "Tarp" programs, etc. ), and lower levels in the indexes. I`ts still cheap to hedge against your long positions ( put/call ratio ).

Hyperinflation Nation ( click )

Dow Jones: Awaiting high volatility!

2009-12-08T09:29:00.002+01:00

Dow Jones: At the moment trading in to a coil formation, with a negative divergence in the RSI. RSI trades in top of range. Awaiting volatility to pick up short term. BDD 10440 appears as the short term resistence level, DDLow 9580 as the support level. If DJI breaks out of the coil formation on the upside, and with that, the resistence level BDD 10440, next resistence level is DDHigh 10580 ( + 1,8% ). On the downside DDLow 9580 ( - 7,70% ). With the risk reward of ( +1,8% / -7,7% ), and with the negative divergence in the RSI, I would either allocate in to cash, or go short.
Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Dow Jones: Trading at Best Dynamic Deviation 10440. Risk reward ( +1,8% / -7,8% )

2009-11-16T17:10:00.009+01:00

Dow Jones: At the moment trading close to BDD=10440. BDD appears as the short term resistence level. If DJI exceed BDD, next resistence level is DDHigh=10580 ( +1,82% ). DDLow=9580 ( -7,8% ), gives a short term risk reward of: ( +1,82% / -7,8% ).With this taken into consideration I would start to sell some stocks.

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

OSEBX. SELL! Testing DDHigh 350.

2009-11-11T11:44:00.005+01:00

OSEBX: At the moment trading at 349 approaching DDHigh 350. DDHigh appears as the long term resistance level. Awaiting BDD 312 ( -10% ) to be tested. With the short term risk reward at ( +0,7% / -10% ) it is time to sell some stocks. DDLow at 279 ( -20% ). Long term risk reward: ( +0,7% / -20% )BEARISH!

OSEBX. No mans land! DDLow=279 (-15,5%). Bearish

2009-10-28T13:04:00.003+01:00

OSEBX: At the moment trading at 331, with the short term risk reward of ( -5% / +5% ): No mans land! Awaiting OSEBX to test BDD=312 on the downside (-5%) . DDLow=279 (-15,5% ).

Risk reward calculation: (+5% / -15,5 % )

SDRL. Trading below BDD 122, further downside potential (-10%)

2009-10-28T11:54:00.003+01:00

SDRL: Has broken best dynamic deviation 122, on the downside. BDD appears as the short term resistance level and DDLow 108, as the short term support level (-10%):

Dow Jones: Awaiting DDHigh 9700 to be broken on the downside. Bearish.

2009-10-28T11:53:00.000+01:00

Dow Jones Daily: Awaiting DDHigh 9700 to be broken on the downside (-1,32%). DDHigh now appears as the short term support level. If DJI breaks DDHigh on the downside, next support level is BDD 9050 (-8%). DDLow 8700 (-11,17%).
Risk reward: ( -1,32% / -11,17% )

SDRL. Short term downside potential -17%. SELL

2009-10-16T11:50:00.003+02:00

SDRL- Trading above BDD 122. Awaiting BDD to be broken on the downside. DDHigh 138 appears as the short term resistance level, BDD as the short term support level.
With the risk reward of (+5% / -17%), It is time to sell some stocks.

Dow Jones: CFD US 30 Wall Street

2009-10-02T00:38:00.005+02:00

Dow Jones:4 month risk reward= +2% / -8,10%. Support at BDD=9050:

Click on chart to enlarge:

Dow Jones:1 month risk reward= +2% / -4,70%. Support at BDD=9050:

Dow Jones: CFD US 30 Wall Street

DDHigh=9700 (+2%)
BDD=9050 (-4,70%)
DDLow=8725 (-8,10%)

Risk reward calculation: (+2% / -8,10% )

Det finnes et CFD ( cash for difference ) produkt: CFD US 30 Wall Street, hvor du kan handle Dow Jones indeksen direkte. Er en av de mest "signifikante" indeksene globalt, og dermed også et perfekt instrument for min modell. Da produktet er standarisert, og handles på børs, er det fantastiske volumer, med fantastiske gearingmuligheter (10*+++++).

En kan også eksponere seg igjennom ETF`er , hvor en får indirekte gearing direkte på indeks. Underliggende kan gjerne være derivater, hvor de da sørger for alt fra 2*gearing til 4*gearing, på underliggende, Dow Jones i dette eksempel. Innen disse type produkter er det kun fantasien, som kan sette en stopper for ulike strategier, med ulike risk reward tilnærminger. Jeg har mange ideer.

Best Dynamic Deviation- Equilibrium.

2009-06-19T18:19:00.027+02:00

DJI: The market is trading at BDD ( Best Dynamic Deviation ) 8575, once again...

Risk reward:

3 month- DDHigh 8681 DDLow 7575 (+1,47%/-11,71%), SELLING opportunity!

Short term:Live- (+1,47%/-2,65%), hands off!

It`s been a long time.. I have not had the chance to fully concentrate on the market for the last 5 months, therefore no postings.

Awaiting the DJI to sig saw for the next 3 month period within the range: (DDHigh8682-DDLow7575), with an average for the period at (BDD 8575) In my oppinion, thats a pritty nice trading range, for those with trading capital.

"The trade":

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Sell i f DJI exceeds DDHigh 8682, start with 40% of your trading capital, execute at prices close to DDHigh 8682, and then take a breather. If DJI then overshoots DDHigh , start to sell at higher prices and at smaller volumes as the market trades upwards.
Here it is important to have a water proof strategy, in the way that you ALWAYS follow it! If I have failed to mention how important it is to have a "stop loss strategy", for your working capital, I will now remind myself and others. In this case I would set my stop loss, at points traded above DJI 8750.
As the trade matures you always have the intention to reach your target. Since DDLive 8332 is the best short term support level at the downside, I would place a "buy order" at these levels, with 50% of the volume.
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At this time a new stop loss strategy is developed, with the intention to protect the profit.
At this point it is time to place the buy order, hopefully closing your trade, with the target at DDLow 7575.

Since the" DJI" is a multi listed CFD instrument ( US 30 Wall Street ), it is fantastic liquidity, and at not least crazy volumes. Happy trading!

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update. Testing downside.

2009-01-19T15:03:00.001+01:00

OSEBX- Has broken belove DDHigh 229,5. Next support level is BDD 219,5 See: Friday Update. Selling Opportunity!

Friday Update. Selling Opportunity!

2009-01-16T09:41:00.010+01:00

OSEBX- Trading at DDHigh 229,5. Risk reward BDD 219,5 DDLow 209,5 (-4,34%/-8,75%), gives a very good short term selling opportunity! OSEBX vs Nymex (Fabruary):
Nymex January 2010 vs February 2009: As you can see of the chart, the end of the forward curve (2010) has outperformed spot by almost 30% , since the start of November. Given that, one of the favorite trades in the market has been bying spot, take delivery, and then sell the forward curve longer out. ( For those with storage capazity ) Because of this, I think we will see big volatility in the forward curve, as the participants seek maximum profit, and also get greedy with their physical oil. With this taken into consideration, I see further downside. There is simply to much oil out there!

Thursday Update. Selling Opportunity!

2009-01-15T15:25:00.008+01:00

OSEBX- Trading above BDD 219,5. Awaiting BDD to be broken on the downside. DDHigh 229 appears as the short term resistance level, BDD as the short term support level. With the risk reward of (+2%/-6%), It is time to sell some stocks, or buy some OBXBears, at these levels.DJI- On its way to rescent lows? Target= DDLow 7567
Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-12,23%) LONG LCAPA (+75,37%) SHORT SDRL (-2,48%) SHORT REC ( -6,42% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-25,60%) LONG DUG X (-1,99%)............................... Active Trades P/L: (+26,66%) Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) Total P/L: (+270,08%)Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Bears taking over!

2009-01-13T12:56:00.002+01:00

OSEBX- Trading close to BDD 219,5. Awaiting BDD to be broken on the downside. Short term risk reward: DDLow=209,5 (-6,5%) DDHigh=229,3 (+2%)

Monday Update. Bearish outlook.

2009-01-12T16:11:00.009+01:00

DJI- At the moment trading belove BDD 8575, wich is the most significant long term support/resistance level at DJI. Next long term support level is DDLow=7564 (-12%). Risk reward calculation gives risk reward (+5,37%/-12%):Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-9,27%) LONG LCAPA (+114,18%) SHORT SDRL (-10,65%) SHORT REC ( -16,71% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-31,55%) LONG DUG X (-7,78%)......................... Active Trades P/L: (+38,22%) Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) Total P/L: (+281,64%)Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update. Happy new year!

2009-01-05T15:48:00.002+01:00

Postings starting from tomorow.

Monday Update.

2008-12-29T14:12:00.004+01:00

Market is trading up on light volume ( DAX, Nymex, USD/JPY, DJI.)- I believe that money trading in this market, are either very short term or desperate. There can be some "window dressing" and Tax related trades to look up for. (NY Gold mini, Feb 2009):

Wednesday Update. LCAPA!

2008-12-24T23:55:00.000+01:00

Liberty Media Corporation (LCAPA:xnas)-Has broken DDLow=4,24 on the uppside. DDLow now appears as the short term support level, BDD=7,22 (+54,28%), the long term resistence ( 3 months ).
Risk reward calculation (-8,08%/+54,28%)LCAPA News-

-Liberty Media Soars After Director Gould Buys Stock

-Liberty Media Capital Jumps To Multi-Week High

-Liberty Media's QVC Unveils One of North Carolina's Largest Solar Projects

Key Statistics: LCAPA

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,10%) LONG LCAPA (+77,61%) SHORT SDRL (+2,71%) SHORT REC ( -6,42% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-16,88%) LONG DUG X (+3,55%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+39,48%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+282,90%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update.

2008-12-24T02:05:00.009+01:00

DJI- Bearish Confirmation- DJI has broken BDD 8505 on the downside, also giving a break out confirmation of the bearish "Rising Wedge" pattern. BDD now appears as the short term resistence level, with DDLow=7567 as the support level. Short term risk reward calculation is (+0,95%/-10,17%) Rising Wedge downside potential is (-24%):ProShares ETFs Declare Distributions ( DUG )=USD 6,06101
(DUG Spot 28,90+USD 6,06)= Before Distribution= (34,96). I will use this figure in "Active Trades" , instead of reporting (+17,33%) to "Executed Trades" as Dividend.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,10%) LONG LCAPA (+77,61%) SHORT SDRL (+2,71%) SHORT REC ( -6,42% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-16,88%) LONG DUG X (+3,55%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+39,48%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+282,90%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update.

2008-12-22T15:34:00.002+01:00

Nothing new- Still Bearish on the Dow. Awaiting BDD 8505 to be broken on the downside. Holding on to my positions.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,03%) LONG LCAPA (+25,37%) SHORT SDRL (+6,67%) SHORT REC ( -2,45% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-14,29%) LONG DUG (+0,85%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-4,88%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+238,54%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Friday Update.

2008-12-19T12:29:00.001+01:00

See: Wednesday Update

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-17,90%) LONG LCAPA (+26,87%) SHORT SDRL (-1,92%) SHORT REC ( -5,68% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-19,67%) LONG DUG (-3,48%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-21,78%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+221,64%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Still Playing The Wedge.

2008-12-17T23:34:00.008+01:00

DJI- DDHigh 9067 BDD 8507 DDLow=7567. BDD appears as the short term support level. If DJI breaks BDD at the downside, it will also break out of the rising wedge, with a long term downside potential of (-25%). Short term risk reward calculation is (+3,07/-14,12%)Nymex (CLF9)- Head and Shoulder Pattern. Short term downside potential (-7,8%). DDHigh=43,77 BDD=39,94 DDLow=36. BDD appears as the short term support level. If Nymex breaks BDD on the downside, next support level is DDLow. (+9,52%/-9,80%)
OBX vs Nymex, Daily-OBX has outperformed Nymex by (+33%) since 20th of November...Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-14,02%) LONG LCAPA (+29,85%) SHORT SDRL (-13,07%) SHORT REC ( +1,53% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-21,25%) LONG DUG (-14,02%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-31,46%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+211,96%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Still Playing The Wedge

2008-12-16T16:47:00.002+01:00

See: Monday Update

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-15,56%) LONG LCAPA (+33,21%) SHORT SDRL (-11,72%) SHORT REC ( +4,36% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-18,07%) LONG DUG (-15,84%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-23,61%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+219,81%)

Monday Update. Playing the wedge!

2008-12-15T13:05:00.009+01:00

Seeking Alpha- We Can't 'Spend and Save' Our Way Out of This Recession
Paulson's Plan Fails to Understand the Problem; Madoff Is a Perfect Example

DJI- Trading close to BDD=8507. BDD appears as the short term support level. If DJI breaks BDD on the downside, it also confirms breakout of the bearish rising wedge with a downside potential of (-23,37%). DDHigh=9067 DDLow=7567 gives risk reward calculation (+4,36%/-12,70%):
STL- Trading at BDD=112,5. DDHigh=117,5 DDLow=105,6 gives risk reward calculation of (+4,66%/-5,74%). Bear/Bull signal given if close is belove/above BDD. Present trading is in no man`s land:Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,06%) LONG LCAPA (+12,31%) SHORT SDRL (-10,80%) SHORT REC ( 8,33% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-15,77%) LONG DUG (-9,98%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-36,97%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+206,45%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Friday Update. Testing Downside

2008-12-12T12:00:00.003+01:00

OSEBX 6Hours- Has broken out of "The Rising Wedge". DDHigh=202 appears as the short term support level. If Osebx breaks DDHigh on the downside, next support level is BDD=190,74 (-9%)DJI Futures 8Hours- At the moment trading belove BDD 8507 and has broken out of "The Bearish Rising Wedge". Next support level is DDLow=7567 (-9%)

Thursday Update. Bull Trap!

2008-12-11T23:51:00.007+01:00

Trading Strategy: Awaiting BDD`s at OSEBX and DJI to be tested, respective 190,74 and 8507. Holding on to my shorts.

OSEBX:

DJI:
Seeking Alpha- Thursday Outlook: Bulls Come on Strong

Nymex vs OSEBX comparative daily: Osebx has outperformed Nymex by +27% since the start of December. Six Month Correlation evince that the gap again will close. Looks like many are betting on a jump in the oil price....Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,63%) LONG LCAPA (+7,09%) SHORT SDRL (-12,63%) SHORT REC ( +4,91% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-20,00%) LONG DUG (-11,74%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-51,99%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+191,43%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Bull Trap!

2008-12-10T13:22:00.014+01:00

Seeking Alpha- Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

COUNCIL on FOREIGN RELATIONS- Global trade is shrinking, fast

U.S NEWS- Even With a Bailout, Automakers Would Still Be Running on Fumes. Call it a starter bailout. And get ready for a second, a third, or even a fourth....

Seeking Alpha- Preview from Europe: Market Rally Was Running on Empty

DAX- Bull Trap, with "The Bearish Rising Wedge". Downside Potential (-8,5%)

OSEBX- Bull Trap, with "The Bearish Rising Wedge". A bull trap often causes some investors to buy the stock, but because the stock continues to decline after the initial signal, those who bought in are "trapped" in a bad investment. A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. BDD=190,74 Downside Potential (-10,5%)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-16,32%) LONG LCAPA (+7,09%) SHORT SDRL (-11,72%) SHORT REC ( +0,67% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-15,81%) LONG DUG (-12,47%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-48,56%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+194,86%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Quiet before the storm?

2008-12-09T13:33:00.010+01:00

Seeking Alpha: The Economic Debate: Did We Need Government Intervention?

US Update 1500:DJI Futures Daily-Potential "Evening Star". BDD=8507. Short term downside potential (-3,5%)

Nymex Daily- Potential "Evening Star". A bearish reversal pattern that continues an uptrend with a long white body day followed by a gapped up small body day, then a down close with the close below the midpoint of the first day. BDD 41,24 (-6,3%):OSEBX, DJI- See Monday Update.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-16,99%) LONG LCAPA (+8,21%) SHORT SDRL (-4,12%) SHORT REC ( +0,17% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-11,55%) LONG DUG (-3,75%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-28,02%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+215,40%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update.

2008-12-08T22:01:00.009+01:00

DJI- Tested DDHigh=9067 during todays session, with the highest print at 9025. Awaiting BDD=8507 to be tested within the next two trading sessions. With the assumption that DDHigh is the longer term resistence level, " The Bearish Rising Wedge" has widen, and the market has created further downside. With todays close, short term risk reward is (+1,8%/-4,42%). Long term ( two months ) risk reward is (+1,8%/-24,8%):OSEBX-Overshooted DDHigh=202 by (+3,28%), and closed todays session in top of 2,5 months trading range. Awaiting BDD 190,74 (-8,41%) to be tested within the two next trading sessions. With the assumption that DDHigh is the longer term resistence level, market has created further downside. With todays close short term risk reward is (-3,17%/-5,47%)=(202/190,7). Long term (2,5 months) risk reward is (-3,17%/-22,69%)=(202/160) Extreme good downside risk reward!
Seeking Alpha: Toward a New Model of Diversification
Seeking Alpha: 10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom
Seeking Alpha: Hedge Funds: Back to Basics
Bloomberg: Hedge Fund Roach Motels Might Just Be a Blessing: Kevin Hassett

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,92%) LONG LCAPA (+1,12%) SHORT SDRL (-0,97%) SHORT REC ( -10,34% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-8,24%) LONG DUG (-3,43%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-41,79%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+201,63%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Sunday Update. New lows?

2008-12-07T11:14:00.015+01:00

Some of my thoughts: Typically we often experience that in a Bull Marked, traders sell their positions before the weekend, so they can have a good nights sleep, and don’t worry about their longs. This “fear” creates a short term sell off. In a Bear Marked the same traders cover their shorts of the same reason. I believe that Friday’s late session rally was caused by this phenomenon. This makes room for a downtrend trading of futures, during Monday’s European session. With this taken in to consideration, I would sell stocks, if the futures are trading on higher levels, during early Monday session. Almost every broker, trader and investor have the same “Devils eye“ on the futures screen during the day, and taking their bets of the same reasons. I believe it is important to find out what is the contrarian side of the marked, all tough it hurts some times. When your stomach says BUY, you should actually SELL, and vice versa. Why does the "slow lane" go faster than the “fast lane” in traffic jams?
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USD strength continues....
This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect. Look for a breakout of "The Bullish Wedge Pattern" USD/NOK: Target USD/NOK 8,10Seeking Alpha: Defining Deflation
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" The Invisible hand, suddely gets very Visible ":
Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak", it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!
.
From the book by James Grant: “Market Miscalculates”:
"Economics, mistaking itself for physics, is wont to turn up its nose at history, but the past has much to teach"; "as dress on Wall Street has become more casual, so have the monetary arrangements... the gold standard and swallowtail coats have given way to Greenspan and open-neck shirts"
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OSEBX 6Hours- "Bearish Three Black Crows": Three long red days with consecutively lower closes act as a strong indicator, certainly the very definition of a downtrend, and almost assuring future bearish trends. BDD=190,74 DDHigh=202,00 DDLow=180,35 gives short term risk reward (+6,14%/-5,22%). Long term risk reward within given trend and with "the three black crows" taken into consideration is (+5,11%/-20,56%).

Trading Strategy: Due to the fact that OSEBX is trading close to the top of range, and the bearish undertone, I`ll hold on to my shorts.DJI 8Hours- "The Bearish Rising Wedge": The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. BDD=8507 DDHigh=9067 DDLow=7567 gives short term risk reward (+4,55%/-12,75%). Long term risk reward within given trend and with "the wedge" taken into consideration is (+4,55%/-18,70%)

Trading Strategy: Due to the fact that DJI is trading close to the top of range, and the bearish undertone, I`ll hold on to my shorts. Looking out for Stock Picks.Stock Pick 1: HNT (Health Net Inc.) : BDD= 11,17 (+15,47%) DDLow=11,45 DDHigh=13,95 (+44,76%). Extreme good risk reward!Stock Pick 2: OFIX (Orthofix International NV): BDD=15,10 DDLow=14,65 DDHigh=17,15 (+20%) Extreme good risk reward!Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,91%) LONG LCAPA (-6,72%) SHORT SDRL (+15,15%) SHORT REC ( -2,76% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (+15,15%) LONG DUG (+6,70%) (click)

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Active Trades P/L: (+7,91%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+251,33%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Friday Update. Confirmation of Head and Shoulder Patterns. Bearish

2008-12-05T09:40:00.007+01:00

US Update 1600: DJI- Confirmation of HS Pattern. Downside Potential (-7%) Next support level = DD7995 See: Thursday Update

OSEBX- Breaks BDD=205,85 (neckline) on the downside. Next support level is DDLow=199,25. If OSEBX breaks DDLow on the downside, next support level is BDDLow=187. HS target=187. Downside Potential (-6%)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,91%) LONG LCAPA (-6,72%) SHORT SDRL (+15,15%) SHORT REC ( -2,76% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (+15,15%) LONG DUG (+6,70%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+7,91%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+251,33%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Head and Shoulder Patterns. Bearish

2008-12-04T10:01:00.006+01:00

US Update 2125: DJI- Testing Neckline in HS Pattern DD=8295. If DJI breaks DDHigh on the downside HS Downside Potential is ( -8,6%)Update 1105: OSEBX Daily-The Bearish Rising Wedge, where "the wedge" appears as the right shoulder in the HS Pattern. Target 191: (-9,37%)OSEBX- BDD 205,85 appears as the short term support level ( neckline ). Awaiting HS Pattern to develop, and confirmed within the weekend. If OSEBX break BDD on the downside, next support level is DDLow=199,25. Short term HS target is BDDLow=187,5. (-9%)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,78%) LONG LCAPA (-4,85%) SHORT SDRL (+4,38%) SHORT REC ( -12,06% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-0,45%) LONG DUG (+10,63%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-24,13%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+219,29%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Head and Shoulder Patterns. Bearish

2008-12-03T12:15:00.020+01:00

Update 1717: DJI- Meets resistance level BDD 8575. LONG DUG (ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) at 34,16 " (Dividend reported 22.12.2008 )

Update 1256: DJI Futures- Potential Head and Shoulder Pattern. Downside Potential (-8,6%) DDHigh 8295 (neckline) appears as the short term resistance level. Awaiting HS pattern to develop, and confirmed within 24 hours. Short term target DDLow=7575:
Update 1212: LONG Xcact BEAR at 168.

Trading Strategy: BDD 205,85 appears as the short term resistance level ( neckline ). Awaiting HS Pattern to develop, and confirmed within 24 hours. Short term target BDDLow=187,5. (-9%)

OSEBX- Potential Head and Shoulder Pattern. Downside Potential (-9,10%):
Head=225 Neckline=BDD=205,85 Target: BDDLow=187,5
Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,28%) LONG LCAPA (+8,58%) SHORT SDRL (+0,00%) SHORT REC ( -4,78% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-3,45%) LONG DUG (-1,87%)(click)

Active Trades P/L: (-20,80%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+222,62%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update.

2008-12-02T08:06:00.018+01:00

US Update 1820:DJI- Potential Head and Shoulder Formation. Downside Potential DDLow=7575 (-9,55%)US Update 1455, DJI- Important levels at DJI: BDDHigh=8575 BDDLow=7995 DDHigh=8295 DDLow=7575. Awaiting DDHigh 8295 to be tested, If DJI breaks DDHigh on the downside, next support level is BDDLow (-2,27%) :Update 1332: Awaiting BDD 205,85 to be tested at OSEBX. If OSEBX breaks BDD on the downside, next support level is DD 199,25 (-4,6%)

SHORT REC at 59,80 SHORT SDRL at 51,20

SHORT SDRL:

SHORT REC:OSEBX: Awaiting BDD 205,85 to be tested. DD=199,25

Update 1305- Due to the Trading Strategy, NHY is sold at 23,40 (+5,41%)
Trading Strategy: Awaiting Best Dynamic Deviations to be tested for short term long/short positions. Example: If OSEBX close above BDD a LONG position will be initiated, if it close belove a SHORT position will be initiated.
BDD: DJI=8575 OSEBX=205,85

OSEBX- Has fallen out of short term trend. Awaiting DDHigh=199,34 to be tested.
Trading Strategy: Hands off.

DJI- Broke BDD 8575 on the downside. GOOG sold at 268,44 (+5,99%) DIG sold at 26,74 (+18,06%) QLD sold at 22,62 (+9,70%) Total P/L (+33,77%)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,89%) LONG LCAPA (+13,06%) SHORT SDRL (+1,79%) SHORT REC ( +0,50% ) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-6,54%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+236,88%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update.

2008-12-01T08:34:00.008+01:00

US Update 1857:DJI- At the moment trading belove BDD at 8376. Trading Stop will probably be activated during the session. I will not be able to post the execution.

US Update1540:DJI- Testing BDD 8575. If DJI appears to close under BDD, all positions will be closed:Update 1230:Nymex- Testing bottom of range + BDD

Short term Risk Reward calculation: DDHigh=54,78 BDD=51,68 (+5,33%/-4,55%):Update 1220:OSEBX- Testing bottom of range.

Short term Risk Reward calculation: DDHigh=219,71 BDD=205,85 (+4,46%/-2,27%):Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS Awaiting DD=8930 on the DJI to be tested. Short term change of trends is given, and short term consilidation is expected, within new sets of ranges. Trading Stop is BDD=8575. If DJI breaks BDD on the downside, all positions will be closed. Looking for short term short/long positions.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-17,00%) LONG QLD (+16,20%) LONG LCAPA (+16,42%) LONG DIG (+26,71%) LONG GOOG (+7,61%) LONG NHY (+1,35%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+48,57%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)

Total P/L: (+252,81%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Friday Update.

2008-11-28T08:16:00.002+01:00

Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS Awaiting DD=8930 on the DJI to be tested. Short term change of trends is given, and short term consilidation is expected, within new sets of ranges. I am leaving for the mountains, so their will be no further postings today. Have a nice weekend. Trading Stop is BDD=8575. If DJI breaks BDD on the downside, all positions will be closed.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-17,00%) LONG QLD (+29,83%) LONG LCAPA (+31,34%) LONG DIG (+49,23%) LONG GOOG (+15,32%) LONG NHY (+17,12%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+123,12%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click).

Total P/L: (+327,36%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update.

2008-11-27T11:49:00.008+01:00

See: Tuesday and Wednesday update. US markets closed, due to Thanks Giving.

CNBC- Why Bear Market Rallies Are Different These Days
CNBC- Oil is extremely oversold and due to bounce back to around $80 per barrel
Seeking Alpha- Rally ETFs: Best Sector Bounces Off the November Bottom

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-17,00%) LONG QLD (+29,83%) LONG LCAPA (+31,34%) LONG DIG (+49,23%) LONG GOOG (+15,32%) LONG NHY (+17,12%) (click)
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Active Trades P/L: (+123,12%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)
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Total P/L: (+327,36%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update.

2008-11-26T09:53:00.014+01:00

Update 2100: Nymex: Testing resistent level DDHigh=54,78. If Nymex exceed DDHigh, next resistent level is DD=56,08 (+2,7%):

Trading Strategy: Trading Stop changed on DJI to BDD=8575 . If DJI breaks BDD on the downside, all positions will be closed.
OSEBX, NYMEX and Dow Jones: All testing Best Dynamic Deviations, respective BDDHigh=205,85, BDD=51,64 and BDDHigh 8575. This levels are still the most significant resistent/support levels for the week, but short term change of trends is given, and short term consilidation is expected, within new sets of ranges.
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Dow Jones, Daily: Possible inverted Head and Shoulder ( see: Tuesday Update ), with the candlestick pattern: " Three White Soldiers ". BDD=8575 DDHigh=8931. Short term Upside Potential (+5,6%)
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Three White Soldiers: "Three white soldiers" is considered by some candle theorists as one of the most bullish candle patterns. The three white soldiers pattern is most potent when it occurs after an extended decline and a period of subsequent consolidation. When a particular instrument posts a decline followed by a sideways movement, the appearance at that point of three white soldiers signals that higher prices are likely ahead: Shown in chart with a red ellipse:
Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. Awaiting DDHigh to be tested on the DJI.
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Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-17,00%) LONG QLD (+29,97%) LONG LCAPA (+31,34%) LONG DIG (+49,23%) LONG GOOG (+15,32%) LONG NHY (+3,60%) (click)
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Active Trades P/L: (+112,47%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)
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Total P/L: (+316,71%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Testing Downside

2008-11-25T11:13:00.019+01:00

US Update 1746: DJI: Possible Inverted Head and Shoulder, with a short term Upside Potential (+7%) DDHigh=8931US Update 1445: DJI Futures: BDD=8575 appears as the short term resistent level. If DJI exceed BDD next resistent level is DDHigh=8931 (+4,4%):OSEBX, NYMEX and Dow Jones: All testing Dynamic Deviations, respective BDDHigh=205,85, DDHigh=54,78 and BDDHigh 8575. This levels are still the most significant resistent/support levels for the week, but short term change of trends is given, and short term consilidation is expected, within new sets of ranges.

OSEBX: NYMEX:

DJI:

Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. Levels of stop loss/gain changed at OSEBX to BDDHigh 205,85, and DDHigh 8295 at Dow Jones.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,32%) LONG QLD (+19,93%) LONG LCAPA (+23,88%) LONG DIG (+34,66%) LONG GOOG (+11,34%) LONG NHY (+6,31%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (+74,80%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)

Total P/L: (+279,04%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update. Change of Trends?

2008-11-24T11:01:00.014+01:00

Update 1525: DJI:Possible change of trend: BDD=7965 appears as the short term support level. Next resistent level is DDHigh=8295. If DJI exceed DDHigh, short term change of trend is given, and BDDHigh=8575 is the most significant resistent level for the week to come.

Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. Awaiting DDHigh=8295 to be tested. If BDDLow=7965 is broken on the downside, all positions will be closed:Update 1455: OSEBX: Testing DDHigh=199,25. If OSEBX exceed DDHigh, short term change of trend is given, and BDDHigh=205,85 (+3,2%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come:Update 1227: Nymex: Testing BDD=51,64. If NYMEX exceed BDD, change of short term trend is given, and DDHigh=54,78 (+6%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come:Update 1100 NHY: LONG NHY ( Norsk Hydro ) at 22,20. Possible change of trend: DDLow=23,10 appears as the short term resistent level. If NHY exceed DDLow, change of trend is given, and BDD=24,10 is the most significant resistent level for the week to come. Long term resistent level is DDHigh=30,60
For further updates: See Sunday Update

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-21,36%) LONG QLD (+20,96%) LONG LCAPA (+22,01%) LONG DIG (+30,07%) LONG GOOG (+1,20%) LONG NHY (+3,60%)
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Active Trades P/L: (+56,28%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)
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Total P/L: (+260,52%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Sunday Update. Change of Trends?

2008-11-23T15:19:00.018+01:00

OSEBX: Possible change of trend: BDDLow=187,5 appears as the short term support level. Next resistent level DDHigh=199,25 (+5,6%). If OSEBX exceed DDHigh, change of trend is given, and BDDHigh=205,85 (+9,5%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come.
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Trading Strategy: Awaiting BDDHigh to be tested. Looking at ticker: NHY, STL, SDRL, XcactBull, XcactBear, GOGL, CRU and IGE for either LONG or SHORT.NYMEX: Possible change of trend, with a bullish "Hammer" shown in chart with a red circle:

The Hammer puts in its appearance after a prolonged downtrend. On the day of the hammer candle, there is strong selling, often beginning at the opening bell. As the day goes on, however, the market recovers and closes near the unchanged mark, or in some cases even higher. In these cases, the market is potentially "hammering" out a bottom.

Dynamic Deviations: BDD=51,64 (+2,42%) appears as the short term resistent level. If NYMEX exceed BDD, change of trend is given, and DDHigh=54,78 (+8,69%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come.DJI:Possible change of trend: BDD=7965 appears as the short term support level. Next resistent level is DDHigh=8295 (+2,92%). If DJI exceed DDHigh, change of trend is given, and BDDHigh=8575 (+6,59%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come.

Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. Awaiting DDHigh=8295 to be tested. If BDDLow=7965 is broken on the downside, all positions will be closed. TMT Tech Basket U.S is a long term investment in the technology, media and telecom sector.

Stock Pick 1: LCAPA ( Liberty Media Corporation ): BDD=2,75 appears as the short term support level. If LCAPA exceed DDLow=3,0 (+3,66%), next long term resistent level is DDHigh=4,24 (+45,87%). DDLow is the most significant resistent level for the week to come.
Stock Pick 2: GOOG ( Google Inc. ): Possible change of trend, with a bullish "Hammer" shown in chart with a red circle: BDD=267,5 (+2,18%) appears as the short term resistent level. If GOOG exceed BDD, change of trend is given, and DDHigh=293,49 (+11,75%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come:
Stock Pick 3: NHY ( Norsk Hydro ) Possible change of trend: DDLow=23,10 (+10%) appears as the short term resistent level. If NHY exceed DDLow, change of trend is given, and BDD=24,10 (+14,5%) is the most significant resistent level for the week to come. Long term resistent level is DDHigh=30,60 (+45,5%). Seeking Alpha: The Dow's Lost Decade

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-26,03%) LONG QLD (+8,00%) LONG LCAPA (+8,21%) LONG DIG (+17,13%) LONG GOOG (+3,61%)
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Active Trades P/L: (+10,92%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)
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Total P/L: (+215,16%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Friday Update. Testing Upside

2008-11-21T10:46:00.023+01:00

Update 1708: Long GOOG (Google Inc.) at 253,28. DDLow=251,8 BDD=258,6 DDHigh=275,5. Short term Upside Potential (+9,5%) Update 1628: LONG DIG (ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF) at 22,65: Update 1543: DJI: Testing DDLow=7572. LONG LCAPA (Liberty Media Corporation) at 2,68. Short term Upside Potential (+13%) Trading Strategy: Awaiting BDD=7965 to be tested. If DJI breaks DDLow on the downside all positions will be closed.
US Update 1530:DJI: Awaiting BDD=7965 to be tested. DDHigh=8295 DDLow=7572 Trading Strategy: Stock Picking. Looking at Ticker: IWN, IWO, XLK, IJT, VBK, USD, HTX, HNT, AXYS, HMSY, RMTI, GOOG, NVDA, LINTA, LCAPA, DIG

OSEBX: Awaiting DDHigh=199,25 to be tested on the upside. BDD=187 DDLow=170,7
Trading Strategy: Hands Off.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-27,11%) LONG QLD (+1,12%) LONG LCAPA (-0,0%) LONG DIG (0,0%) LONG GOOG (0,0%)

Active Trades P/L: (-26,00%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)

Total P/L: (+178,24%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday U.S Update.

2008-11-20T18:50:00.006+01:00

Update 2141:DJI: Meets short term support level DD Low 7572. LONG QLD (ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF) at USD 20,62 :Update 2135: DJI: Awaiting DDLow 7572 to be tested on the downside. BDD=7965. DDHigh=8295. Trading Strategy: Stock Picking:

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-27,11%) LONG QLD (+1,12%)

Active Trades P/L: (-26,00%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)

Total P/L: (+178,24%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Rally Failed!

2008-11-20T09:33:00.005+01:00

OSEBX: Stop Loss: STL sold at 103,30 P/L ( -6,60%) Xcact Bull sold at 19,65 P/L ( 28,28%) NHY sold at 21,55 P/L (-15,82%) Total P/L (-50,71%)

Trading Strategy: Hands off.

Backtrading: This is for not keeping my "Hands Off", the outcome of beeing opportunistic, and the thought that you are better than the market. Rally failed!

"USD strength continues, despite of the low interest rates. This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect..... "

Seeking Alpha: Consumer Inflation Falls More than Expected

The invisible hand suddenly gets very visible! Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak" in the system, it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries around the world these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-20,20%)

Active Trades P/L: (-20,20%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+204,24%) (click)

Total P/L: (+184,04%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Energy Outperforming!

2008-11-19T09:34:00.038+01:00

Update 2143:DJI: Failes to exceed DDLow=8295. Stop Loss activated. DIG sold at 28,64 P/L (-4,63%) VMED sold at 3,85 P/L (-17,03%) Total P/L (-21,34%)

Backtrading: This is for not keeping my "Hands Off", the outcome of beeing opportunistic, and the thought that you are better than the market. Rally failed!

"USD strength continues, despite of the low interest rates. This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect..... "

Seeking Alpha: Consumer Inflation Falls More than Expected

The invisible hand suddenly gets very visible!
Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak" in the system, it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries around the world these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!

Update 1905:DJI: The Falling Wedge. Intermediate Upside Potential (+12,74%). BDD=8575. DDHigh=8860. Short term Upside Potential (+3,7%):

Update 1520: Nymex: Resistance breakout confirmed. Trading at USD 55. Short term target: 56,41. BDD=57,5: Update 1215:Nymex: The Falling Wedge. Short term Upside Potential (+4,28%). BDD=57,5
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The Falling Wedge: The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout:
Exxon Mobile vs DJI: The energy sector has outperformed in rescent trading sessions, where energy yesterday was up over +2%, outperforming the rest of the components on DJI. This is also the sector where I find extreme good risk reward, giving my Dynamic Deviations. Buy Oil!: Update 1000:Nymex: Trading belove BDD=57,5 at 53,61. DDLow=59,87. Risk Reward= (+7%/+11,5%). Extreme good RR!! Trading in bottom of range: BUY OIL!Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. If DJI breaks DDLow 8295 on the downside within todays session, all positions will be sold. Next resistent level BDD=8575. DDHigh=8860. Short term Upside Potential (+5,5%)

Street Insider: Buffett's Berkshire Boosts Stake in ConocoPhillips
FT.COM: Oil groups expect $40 barrel
Bloomberg: Crude Oil Is Steady Amid Forecasts of Increased U.S. Supplies
Forbes.com: Christmas Cut Likely From OPEC
Hegnar Online: Oljen senker Oslo Børs

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-20,41%) LONG Xcact BULL (-20,20%) LONG NHY (-9,38%) LONG STL (-4,79%)

Active Trades P/L: (-56,09%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+254,94%) (click)

Total P/L: (+198,85%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Get ready for Rally!!

2008-11-18T09:13:00.008+01:00

Update 2215:DJI: Exceed DDLow 8295. Next resistent level BDD=8575. DDHigh=8860. Short term Upside Potential (+5,3%)Update 0920: Nymex: Trading belove BDD=57,5 at 55,22. DDLow=59,87. Risk Reward= (+4%/+8%). Extreme good RR!!

DJI Futures: Trading at DDLow 8295. BDD=8575 DDHigh=8860. Risk Reward= (+4%/+7,5%). Extreme good RR!!!

OSEBX: Trading belove DDLow 233,10 at 213,5. BDD=237,5. Risk Reward= (+9%/+11%). Extreme good RR!

Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. If DJI failes to exceed DDLow 8295 within todays session, all positions will be sold.

Charts will be posted during todays session: ( See Sunday Update )

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-10,75%) LONG VMED (+5,60%) LONG Xcact BULL (-9,67%) LONG DIG (+4,88%) LONG NHY (-5,47%) LONG STL (+1,08%)

Active Trades P/L: (-14,51%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+261,77%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update. Get ready for Rally!!!

2008-11-17T09:05:00.015+01:00

Update 1623:DJI: Testing DDLow=8290. Now is the time to buy!!!

Update 1609: NYMEX: Exceed BDD 57,5. Next resistent level DDLow=59,87. Short term Upside Potential (+4%): Intermediate Upside Potential DDHigh=64,91 (+13,5%):

Update 1230: LONG STL at 110,60: BDD=112,5 DDHigh=117,5. Upside Potential (+6,5%)

Update 0903: LONG NHY at 25,60: BDD=27,0 DDHigh=29,25. Upside Potential (+13%)Market Update: See Sunday Update!

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-10,10%) LONG VMED (+2,37%) LONG Xcact BULL (-9,12%) LONG DIG (-1,60%) LONG NHY (-4,49%) LONG STL (+0,63%)

Active Trades P/L: (-22,32%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+253,96%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Sunday Update. Get ready for Rally!!!

2008-11-15T21:21:00.027+01:00

Dow Jones Index: The Stick Sandwitch with an Inverted Head and Shoulder, where the Stick Sandwitch appears as the right shoulder in the formation.

The Stick Sandwitch: A bullish reversal pattern with two red bodies surrounding a green body. A support prices is apparent and the opportunity for prices to reverse is quite good.

Inverted Head and Shoulder: Head=DDLow 8290 Neckline=DDHigh 8860 (DDHigh-Neckline)=570 points. (Neckline+570)= HS Target 9430.

Short term HS Upside Potential: (+11%)

Dynamic Deviations: Short term: DDLow=8290 BDD=8575 DDHigh=8860. Risk Reward Calcuation (-2,3%/+4,4%) Good RR.Nymex: The Stick Sandwitch, with DDHigh=64,91.

Dynamic Deviations: Short term: BDD=57,5 DDLow=59,87 DDHigh=64,91. Risk Reward Calculation (+2,70%/+15,64%) Extreme good RR! Upside Potential (+15,64%)OSEBX: The Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap

The Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap: The pattern is characterized by two green candlesticks with a gap upward between them. However the pattern also shows a red candlestick on the third day partially closing the gap between the first two. The red candlestick is the result of temporary profit taking. I expect the trend to continue upward following the direction of the upward gap.

Dynamic Deviatons: Short term: DDLow=233,10 BDD=237,5 DDHigh=245,20. Risk Reward Calculation (+5%/+10%) Extreme good RR!:Stock Pick 1: Google Inc: Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern.

Inverted Head and Shoulder: Head= 280. Neckline=DDLow 310. (DDLow-Neckline)=30 points. (Neckline+30)= HS Target 340. HS Upside Potential (+9,5%)

Dynamic Deviations: Short term: DDLow=310 BDD=215,68 DDHigh=332,47. Risk Reward Calculation (+0,0%/+7,48%) Extreme good RR!:Some of my thoughts: In recent trading environment it has been wide ranges and extreme volatility, giving fantastic trading opportunities. Now I believe that the market place find itself in a short term state of equilibrium, giving the fact that many instruments are trading close to my Best Dynamic Deviation. Short term shorts has been covered and short term longs has been sold. With this taken in to consideration, I think that in the forthcoming couple of months we will experience that the volatility (VIX), will show signs of stabilisation, giving more narrow trading ranges. With this said, it is important to adjust your trading strategy, and actually get less greedy on your positions. Many traders have got used to trading profits exceeding 20% in many cases, myself included. Maybe we should be happy with 5-10% in the weeks to come…

Happy Trading!

TMT MAN-Hva skjer nå? (click)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-8,60%) LONG VMED (+1,29%) LONG Xcact BULL (-2,55%) LONG DIG (+1,64%)

Active Trades P/L: (-8,23%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+266,42%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Friday Update. Testing Upside

2008-11-14T10:46:00.023+01:00

Update 1715: ETF:Nymex is trading close to DD Low 55,62. Awaiting BDD 57,5 to be tested. LONG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (DIG) at USD 29,93: Update 1700: OSEBX: Appear to be closing belove DD Live 226,60. Due to the fact that DJI appears to find short term support level at BDD=8575, I choose to get greedy on this one. May result in a bad hit on Monday. Greed is good! (click)

Update 1545,DJI: Exceed BDD=8575. Next resistent level DD High 8901. DD Low 8431. Risk reward (+1,7% / -1,7%): DD Live=8744
Update 1136, Nymex: Exceed BDD=57,5. Next resistent level DD High=61,20. DD Low=55,62. Risk reward (+6,23% / -3,37% ) LONG Xcact BULL at 27,70. OSEBX is trading around DD Live: Trading strategy: Awaiting BDD=239 to be tested: If OSEBX appears to be closing belove DD Live, stop loss will be initiated.OSEBX: DD Live=226,60 DD High=246 DD Low=201,20 BDD=239: Short term risk reward (-12%/+7%) Trading Strategy: Hands off. Awaiting some of the DD`s to be activated, either on the upside or downside.:Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-8,60%) LONG VMED (+1,29%) LONG Xcact BULL (-2,55%) LONG DIG (1,64%)

Active Trades: (-8,23%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+266,42%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)

Thursday U.S Update. Testing DD Low?

2008-11-13T15:41:00.015+01:00

Update 2305: VMED exceed DD Low=5,34. Next resistent level BDD=5,75.DD High= 8,33. Intermediate upside potential (+52,84%)Stockpick 1: Virgin Media Inc.: LONG VMED at USD 4,64: DD Low=5,34 BDD=5,75 DD High=8,33. Short term upside potential (+13%) Update 1738: Trading strategy: Stockpicking US. This will be posted, when executed. If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, DUG will be sold. Update 2111: DJI exceed DD Live, DUG sold at 41,44 (+5,98%)

Update 1700: Osebx appear to be closing above DD Live 215,75: All Shorts Covered. REC bought at 57,70 (+30,85%) SDRL 59,30 (+18,89%) STL 114,3 (+11,11%) Xcact BEAR 164,10 (+1,20%)
Total P/L: (+62,05%)

US Update 1546: Trading strategy: If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, DUG will be sold:Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-3,81%) LONG VMED (+17,03%)

Active Trades: (+13,22%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+289,50%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Testing Dynamic Deviation Low?

2008-11-13T08:13:00.008+01:00

OSEBX: DD Live=215,75 DD Low=201,5 BDD=239. Trading strategy: Awaiting DD Live to be broken on the downside. If OSEBX appear to close above DD Live, all shorts will be covered:

Wednesday Update. Testing Best Dynamic Deviations

2008-11-12T09:30:00.029+01:00

Trading strategy 1515: If OSEBX exceed DD Live=233 ( down from DD High=245 ), all shorts will be covered.

US Update 1455: DJI 1 hour: Testing BDD=8575. DDLive=8431 DD High=8681: Trading strategy 1955: If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, all short will be covered
OSEBX 2 hours: Testing BDD=239. Trading strategy: Awaiting BDD to be broken on the downside. Trading strategy: If OSEBX exceed DD High=245, all shorts will be covered. HS target from Sunday Update (click)=224,90 DDLive=233. DD Low=201 Nymex 2 hours:Testing BDD=57,5 DDHigh=61,12 DDLow=55,62: Risk reward (+4,19/-5,22%):Nymex VS Nasdaq Comperative: Gap widens: Seeking Alpha: Wednesday Outlook: Whiplash (click)
Seeking Alpha: Are Stocks Really Cheap?

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-6,76%) LONG Xcact BEAR (+2,26%) SHORT STL (+12,89%) LONG DUG (+15,75%) SHORT REC (+43,81%) SHORT SDRL (+24,34%) (click)

Active Trades: (+92,29%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+300,54%)

Tuesday Update. Testing Downside

2008-11-11T08:59:00.009+01:00

US Update 1852:DJI: Testing BDD=8575. Trading Strategy: Holding on to my shorts. If DJI exceed DD High 8901, all shorts will be covered. New DD Live= 8431.

US Update 1520:DJI: Important levels DD Live/DD High= 8901, now appears as a resistent level. Next support level = BDD 8575.Update 1505: Nymex 1 Hour: Head and Shoulder. HS short term Downside Potential (-6,5%). BDD=57,5:OSEBX 2 Hours: Important levels: DD High/Live 246 BDD=239 DD Low=233. At this point 246 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside. DD Low Downside Potential (-5,82%): Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-0,30%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-13,00%) SHORT STL (+0,79%) LONG DUG (+1,79%) SHORT REC (+20,61%) SHORT SDRL (+12,26%)

Active Trades: (+22,14%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)

Total P/L: (+230,39%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update. The invisible hand gets very visible!

2008-11-10T10:32:00.021+01:00

Monday toughts: Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak" in the system, it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries around the world these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!

DJI 1840: Breaks DDLive/High 8901. Next support level is BDD 8575: Downside Potential (-4%)
OSEBX 1520: "The Evening Star" Confirmed:
US Update 1515: See Sunday Update!
.
Update 1125: OSEBX: Is trading in top of range, and meet DD High 265,20.
SHORT SDRL at 70,50:
Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+4,66%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-21,25%) SHORT STL (-4,87%) LONG DUG (-4,60%) SHORT REC (+11,19%) SHORT SDRL (+3,98%)
.
Active Trades: (-10,88%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)
.
Total P/L: (+197,37%)
.
Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Sunday Update. Bears all over the place!

2008-11-08T21:33:00.043+01:00

Some of my thoughts: Typically we often experience that in a Bull Marked, traders sell their positions before the weekend, so they can have a good nights sleep, and don’t worry about their longs. This “fear” creates a short term sell off. In a Bear Marked the same traders cover their shorts of the same reason. I believe that Friday’s late session rally was caused by this phenomenon. This makes room for a downtrend trading of futures, during Monday’s European session. With this taken in to consideration, I would sell stocks, if the futures are trading on higher levels, during early Monday session. Almost every broker, trader and investor have the same “Devils eye“ on the futures screen during the day, and taking their bets of the same reasons. I believe it is important to find out what is the contrarian side of the marked, all tough it hurts some times. When your stomach says BUY, you should actually SELL, and vice versa. Why does the "slow lane" go faster than the “fast lane” in traffic jams?
USD strength continues, despite of the low interest rates.... This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect.

Inflationary Holocaust Jim Rogers: Watch the video! (click)

From the book by James Grant: “Market Miscalculates”:

"Economics, mistaking itself for physics, is wont to turn up its nose at history, but the past has much to teach"; "as dress on Wall Street has become more casual, so have the monetary arrangements... the gold standard and swallowtail coats have given way to Greenspan and open-neck shirts"

DJI 8 Hours: Long term outlook: New Deviations calculated: DD High=DD Live ( high significance ) =8901. BDD=8575 DD Low=7699. At this point 8901 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside. DD Low Downside Potential (-15%) DJI 1 Hour: Potentail Head and Shoulder + Rising Wedge:

Head and Shoulders patterns resemble the upper part of a person's body, specifically a shoulder on either side of a head. The line connecting the left and right armpit is referred to as the neckline. Price projections are identified by taking the point or percent change between the Head and the Neckline. Price projections are only estimates and should accompany other supporting evidence in developing.

HS Potential: Head=9600 Neckline=8800. H-N= 800 points (-9%). Within the HS formation we also have The Rising Wedge, with a short term downside potential of (-3,4%), where the neckline appears as a short term support level. OSEBX:Long term outlook:Potentail Head and Shoulder + The Evening Star. DD High=246. BDD=239 DD Low=201,2. At this point 246 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside. DD Low Downside Potential (-19,5%).

HS Potential: (-9%)

The Evening Star: Shown in chart with red circles : A bearish candlestick pattern consisting of three candles that have demonstrated the following characteristics:

1. The first bar is a large white candlestick located within an uptrend.

2. The middle bar is a small-bodied candle (red or green) that closes above the first white bar.

3. The last bar is a large red candle that opens below the middle candle and closes near the center of the first bar's body. Stockpick 1: Liberty Media Corporation (LINTA): From TMT Tech Basket U.S: Intermediate outlook: DD High=6,39. BDD=5,08 DD Low=4,78. At this point 4,78 appear to be the short term resistent level until broken on the upside. DD High Upside Potential (+41%):Stockpick 2: NVidia Corp. (NVDA): From TMT Tech Basket U.S: Intermediate outlook: DD High=14,65. BDD=10,18 DD Low=6,62. At this point 6,62 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside. DD High Upside Potential (+66%):Seeking Alpha: Consumer Credit: An International Crisis (click)

Seeking Alpha: The Real Unemployment Numbers (click)

Seeking Alpha: Waiting for New Market Uncertainty to Settle

Seeking Alpha: Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?

Apple Inc. (AAPL): The Rising Wedge:Intermediate outlook: DD High=95,5. BDD=91,77 DD Low=76,0. At this point 95,5 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside.

DD Low Downside Potential (-22,5%)

The Rising Wedge: Upside Potential (+11,5%) Downside Potential (-28,36%)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+8,90%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-21,25%) SHORT STL (-5,86%) LONG DUG (-4,02,%) SHORT REC (+16,51%)

Active Trades: (-5,75%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+202,50 %)

Total P/L: (+208,25%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Friday Update. Testing Upside

2008-11-07T09:12:00.014+01:00

US Update 1540: DJI: Awaiting BDD=8575 t0 be tested.
Trading strategy: If DJI exceed DD=8900 on the upside, all shorts will be covered.

Update 1500: OSEBX: Head and Shoulder CONFIRMED.

Update 1324: DJI: "The Three Black Crows" candle formation. Essentially, it is a reversal formation that occurs following a strong advance. If DJI continues its negative pattern on The Fourth Candle, then it is likely that the issue is going much lower: BDD=8575

Seeking Alpha: "Friday Outlook: From Bad to Worse" (click)

Update 1222: Potential Head and Shoulder Formation.
Intermediate Downside Potential ( -7,5% ):OSEBX: Important levels DD High=265,20. BDD=239. DD Low=223
Short term risk reward ( +6% /-8% )

Trading Strategy: Awaiting BDD to be tested. If OSEBX exceed DD High, all shorts will be covered:

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+8,90%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-21,25%) SHORT STL (-5,86%) LONG DUG (-4,02,%) SHORT REC (+16,51%)

Active Trades: (-5,75%).

Executed Trades P/L: (+202,50 %)

Total P/L: (+208,25%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Testing Downside.

2008-11-06T08:36:00.025+01:00

Update 1515: DJI: Important levels: DD High=9225 DD Low=8900.
Short term Downside/Upside Potential (-2,0%/+1,8%).
Intermediate Downside Potential (-5,5%)

Trading Strategy: Awaiting DD Low to be tested. If DJI closes above DD High, all shorts will be covered. BDD=8575.
Update 1418: Seeking Alpha: "Policymakers' Actions Aren't Gaining Traction" (click)

OSEBX: Important levels on OSEBX: DDLive=265,20 BDD=239 DD=223. Short term Downside Potential (-11,58%) Intermediate Downside Potential (-17,4%) :Dow Jones finally broke out of "The Rising Wedge" next support level is DD=8900. BDD=8575: Seeking Alpha: "A $40 Bottom in Oil?" (click) Nymex:BDD=57,5

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+5,66%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-15,63%) SHORT STL (-1,55%) LONG DUG (+5,75%) SHORT REC (+22,17%)

Active Trades: (+16,41%).
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

Total P/L: (+224,66%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Still Playing The Wedge. Testing Downside

2008-11-05T10:17:00.010+01:00

Update 1830: DJI breaks DD Live=9388. Next support level DD=9225.

Update 1415: DJI: Important levels on the Dow: On the Upside: " Rising Wedge" High=9700. On the Downside: DDLive=9388. DD=9225. DD=8900. BDD=8575. Risk reward= (+2% / -10%):Update 1340: Seeking Alpha: "Will Alternative Energy Stocks Actually Benefit from the New Administration?" (click)

Nymex Failed to exceed BDD High=70. Next support level is DD Live=61,90. Short term Downside Potential (-7,9%) BDD Low=57,5:OSEBX has broken the support level DD Live 265,20 on the downside. Next support level is BDD=239. Short term Downside Potential (-8%):The "Rising Wedge"Still Active. See Sunday update (click)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+13,09%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-25,52%) SHORT STL (-8,57%) LONG DUG (-12,54%) SHORT REC (-4,07%)

Active Trades: (-37,90%).

Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

P/L: (+170,35%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Still Playing The Wedge

2008-11-04T08:41:00.029+01:00

Update 2215: Playing The Wedge is making me exhausted. DJI is trading in top of the rangeUpdate 1728: Solar vs Nymex: Some of you have asked for correlation between the oilprice and the solar sector. It is going to be much harder to achieve Grid Parity (click) with this low oilprice levels. It`s much more expensive with Solar Energy. Personally I think this is The Obama effect.:Update 1533:DJI: RISING WEDGE LIVE AND KICKING!!: Downside Potential (-11%)Update 1247: Nymex: Testing Neckline in HS Formation. DD Live=65,62 BDD=57,5 gives risk reward: ( +2,5%/-10,40% ):Update1235: Osebx: Risk Reward Calculation gives DD Live=265,20 BDD=239. ( +1,5%/-8,4% )Update 1045: REC, meets resistent level DD High 75,50. SHORT REC 75,50: Downside Potential (-12%) DD Low=65,60 BDD=70,90:Update 1033: Tuesday Thoughts: Many Oil Exporting countries are depended on higher oil prices in their national budgets to make “surpluses”, Norway being one of them. OPEC has recently cut their outputs by 1,2 million barrels, only to see the oil price still deteriorate. In this price environment, they are still depended on income, especially these days. This makes me believe that a lot of oil is still being put out there at lower prices, and can result in front running from the different counterparts, resulting in further deterioration, and major undershooting of the oil price (BDD=57,5) . Please comment on this.

A lot of companies in the Energy sector has posted strong Q3 numbers, due to the fact, that they had high oil prices during this period, and it is possible to assume that many have covered their shorts, post to the Q3. The offshore sector has also experienced nice margins due to the same phenomenon. Oil majors has negotiated their drilling contracts during an environment with oil price at levels above USD 100, I assume that in the forthcoming period we will se many of the outstanding contracts terminated, and lower rates will be seen.

The focus turned from macro fundamentals to corporate Q3 earnings the last couple of weeks, resulting in a “breather” for the investors, and higher levels on the indexes. I assume "The Warren Buffet Effect" also lured a lot of long term investors to the marked, in fear of not getting in, resulting in higher short term levels and making an intermediate bottom in the marked. Soon the US election is over, and The President will adress state of the union. In that regard I will assume he wants to keep expectations down. Wonder what will happen in Q4?

OSEBX VS Nymex: OSEBX has Outperformed Nymex by almost 16% since the end of October. Historic correlation suggests that the gap again will be closed: Nymex BDD=57,5

The "Rising Wedge"Still Active. See Sunday update (click)

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+13,09%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-29,79%) SHORT STL (-12,29%) LONG DUG (-12,54%) SHORT REC (-11,80%)

Active Trades: (-53,64%).
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

P/L: (+154,61%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory
Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Monday US. Update + Stock Picks

2008-11-03T13:09:00.015+01:00

Update 1521: Nasdaq Futures CONFIRMED Rising Wedge Downside Breakout: Downside Potential (-10%)Update 1455: Nymex: CONFIRMED Rising Wedge Downside Breakout. Downside Potential (-14%) DD Live=65,62 BDD=57,5Update 1449:DJI Futures: CONFIRMED Rising Wedge Downside Breakout. Downside Potential (-10%) DD Live=9225. BDD=8575.Stockpick 1: Liberty Media Corporation (LCAPA):BDD=7,22 DD=8,40. Upside Potential (+24%) Stockpick 2: Health Net Inc. (HNT): BDD=5,53 DD=7,20. Upside Potential (+20%)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+7,25%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-17,58%) SHORT STL (-6,62%) LONG DUG (-0,90%).

Active trades P/L: (-17,84%).
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

P/L: (+190,41%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory
Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Monday Update. Rising Wedge.

2008-11-03T10:50:00.004+01:00

"The Rising Wedge", still intact- See Sunday Update. I will present two US stockpicks post to the open.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+4,16%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-18,19%) SHORT STL (-5,22%) LONG DUG (-4,68%).

Active trades P/L: (-23,94%).
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

Total P/L: (+184,31%).

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory
Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Sunday Update.The Rising Wedge. Bearish

2008-11-02T00:02:00.017+01:00

Rising Wedge: A rising wedge is a reversal pattern frequently seen in bear markets. This pattern shows up in charts when the price moves upward with highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. Using two trendlines - one for drawing across two or more highs and a trendline connecting two or more lows - the trendlines will show convergence toward the upper right part of the chart. I will first show you an example, happened last week, with the gold price:

COMEX Gold 100 Oz., Dec 2008: Rising Wedge, Example: The Downside Potential of such a formation, is shown in the chart at the left side, where the "Wedge" is widest.OSEBX: Rising Wegde: Downside Potential (-7,5%) DD Live=223.DJI: Rising Wedge: Downside Potential (-10,7%). DD Live= 9225 BDD=8575NASCOMP: Rising Wedge: Downside Potential (-4%). DD Live=1660 BDD High=1705,75 BDD Low=1528,75Nymex: Rising Wedge: Downside Potential (-15,7%) DD Live=65,62 BDD Low=57,5. When it comes to the Stock Picks for next week, I have to do some more "modelling".

Some of my thoughts: Several mutual fonds often "print up" stocks in the end of the month, so they get “better” returns ( or less loss ) to show to their holders. It appeared so on Friday, with a very strong close in Europe, especially at OSEBX. This transplanted in higher futures trading in US, who had traded at lows for the entire session. DJI had an intence session, with highs up at DD=9418 and lows down at DD Live= 9225. The Bears took control, the last 30 minutes, sending the DJI down to almost where it had started. It could appear to be an "Evening Star" formation, with a slighter higher close. DD Live 9225, has gotten to be a very important level on the DJI, testing it many times on the way up, and also as a support level in Fridays session. The DD 9225 has my fully attention for the week to come. DD High 9418 has been tested two times during last week, followed by a sharp retraction ( "The Mickey Mouse Formation" ). If DJI hold above DD Live for two more sessions, new BDD and DD is required. In the month chart BDD 8575, ( Most Significant Deviation ) is still the Best Dynamic Deviation, in my model.

A lot of companies in the Energy sector has posted strong Q3 numbers, due to the fact, that they had high oil prices during this period, and it is possible to assume that many have covered their shorts, post to the Q3. The offshore sector has also experienced nice margins due to the same phenomenon. Oil majors has negotiated their drilling contracts during an environment with oil price at levels above USD 100, I assume that in the forthcoming period we will se many of the outstanding contracts terminated, and lower rates will be seen.

The focus turned from macro fundamentals to corporate Q3 earnings the last couple of weeks, resulting in a “breather” for the investors, and higher levels on the indexes. I assume "The Warren Buffet Effect" also lured a lot of long term investors to the marked, in fear of not getting in, resulting in higher short term levels and making an intermediate bottom in the marked. Wonder what will happen in Q4?

"Decisions made over the next few months may well shape the world for a generation. At stake could be the legitimacy of the open market itself." Financial Time`s Martin Wolf.

Happy Trading!

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+4,16%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-8,61%) SHORT STL (-2.91%) LONG DUG (-4,68%).

Active trades P/L: (-12,03%).

Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %).

Total P/L: (+196,22%).

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Friday Update. Testing Downside

2008-10-31T08:49:00.028+01:00

FRIDAY FUN!:DJI: The "MICKEY MOUSE FORMATION": Only in Walt Disney!Update 1620: I`m getting Greedy! May result in a bad hit! "Greed Is Good! Tradingstrategy: Holding on to all my shorts over the weekend.

Update 1503: DJI meet resistent level DD Live= 9225. LONG UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) at USD 39,10.:Update 1415: OSEBX meet resistent level BDD High 239. SHORT Statoil at 127. Short term Trading Strategy: If OSEBX exceed BDD + 2 points, I will cover all shortsOSEBX: OSEBX failed to exceed resistent level at BDD High=239. LONG Xcact BEAR at 163,80: Short Term Downside Potential=DD Live 223 (-4%)Nasdaq Futures: Key Reversal Pattern "Evening Star", Confirmed: ( se levels and Terminology, from yesterday )Nymex Month: Failed to exceed BDD High=70, next support level is BDD Low=57,5. Downside Potential: (-9%)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+4,16%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-8,61%) SHORT STL (-2.91%) LONG DUG (-4,68%)
.
Active trades P/L: (-12,03%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %) .

Total P/L: (+196,22%) .

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory
Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Potential Key Reversal Pattern. Bearish

2008-10-30T23:20:00.009+01:00

NASDAQ-100, Dec 2008 (NQZ8): Key Reversal Pattern, Bearish! Nasdaq is developing a Potential "Evening Star" in the 4 hour chart, with a Short Term Downside Potential at DD Live=1295: (-3,5%) and an Intermediate Downside Potential at BDD=1247,5: (-6,8%):Evening Stars start with a continuation of the bullish move. The second day sees a continuation of the move up, but a sell-off makes the market close at or near the open for the day.... .

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-0,76%) .
Active trades P/L: (-0,76%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)
.
Total P/L: (+207,49%)
.
Terminology: My Dynamic Theory
Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

Thursday U.S Update. Testing Upside

2008-10-30T14:55:00.010+01:00

DJI: Testing DD Live=9225. Next resistent level is DD=9418. Next support level is DD=8900. Short term Trading Strategy: Hands off. Risk Reward= (-4%)/(+2%). BDD=8575Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-0,76%)
Active trades P/L: (-0,76%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)

Total P/L: (+207,49%)
.

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Testing Upside.

2008-10-30T12:36:00.012+01:00

Update 1422: OSEBX meet resistent BDD High=239. Closing all positions. CRU sold at 0,76. Xcact BULL sold at 31,90. P/L CRU: (+13,24%) P/L Xcact BULL: (+16,0%) Total P/L: (+29,24%): Update 1236: CRU testing DD=0,80. Next resisten level is DD High=0,97. Upside Potential: (+20%). Short term trading strategy: If it does not exceed DD=0,80, I will close the position:
OSEBX: Breaks DD Live=223 ( It actually did yesterday if it would not be for TEL). Next resistent level is BDD High=239. Short term Upside Potential: (+5,50%)
Short term Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. If OSEBX breaks under DD Live= 223, all my positions will be closed (CRU,BULL)

Nymex: Nymex testing BDD High=70. ( OSEBX outperform Nymex? Se chart from yesterday.):Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+0,18%)

Active trades P/L: (+0,18%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)

Total P/L: (+208,43%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Politisk respons fungerer.

2008-10-30T10:54:00.001+01:00

TEDSP:IND TED Spread
Value2.78
Change-0.061
% Change-2.147
High2.84
Low2.78
Open2.84
Value for .TEDSP:IND
Chart the Performance of .TEDSP:IND

90 Day Bank Accepted Bills, Dec 2008 (IRZ8). Rising Wedge, Break out, on the downside: Se tidligere innlegg for forklaring: Bunnen satt. It`s all about Technology! og Hva skjer nå?

Wednesday U.S Update. Testing Upside

2008-10-29T14:34:00.012+01:00

Update 2059: DJI:Break DD Live 8900. All positions closed. WB sold at 5,92 KGC sold at 10,34 .
P/L WB: (+4,59%) P/L KGC: (+20,28%) Total P/L: (+24,87%)

Update 1725:DJI: Breaking "Blueline", Upside Potential (+4,5%):
Update 1648:DJI: Potential "Flagg Formation". . If it breaks the "blueline", Short Term Upside Potential (+4,5%) FF Target=9486. Update 1525: If it would not be for Telenor (-22%), OSEBX would exceed BDD Live=223, with nice margin, so still holding on to my LONGS at OSEBX (CRU,BULL). "Greed Is Good"

DJI: Exceed DD=8900. Next resistent level is DD Live= 9225. Short term Trading Strategy: Holding on to my LONGS. If DJI breaks under DD=8900, all my positions will be closed (KGC,WB)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-3,90%) LONG CRU (-8,82%) LONG Xcact BULL (-0,36%)

Active trades P/L: (-14,55%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+179,01 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+164,46%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Testing Upside

2008-10-29T08:51:00.018+01:00

Update 1330: Goldrush! COMEX Gold 100 Oz., Dec 2008 exceed BDD=751,5. Next resistent level DD=800. Upside Potentail (+6,5%)

Update 1115: Get ready for rally! OSEBX exceed DD Live=223. Next resistent level is BDD High=239. Short term Upside Potential (+7,0%): Rise Up! (click)Nymex: Exceed DD Live 64,60. Next resistent level is BDD High=70. Short term Upside Potential (+8,0%): Update 1020: OSEBX has underperformed NYMEX correlation since MAY. The spread is narrowing. In that case, you can buy stocks and sell nymex, to take away market risk.Time to outperform again?:OSEBX: Short term trading strategy: Testing DD Live=223, If OSEBX exceed DD Live, next resistent level is BDD=239. Upside Potential (+7%): Holding on to my LONG positions. Failure of exceeding 223 during todays session, will result in closure off positions ( CRU, BULL):

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-4,94%) LONG WB (+11,48%) LONG KGC(-0,0%) LONG CRU (-2,94%) LONG Xcact BULL (+2,55%)

Active trades P/L: (+6,15%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+154,07 %)

Total P/L: (+160,29%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Goldrush!

2008-10-28T08:57:00.022+01:00

Update 1949: DJI exceed BDD=8575, next resistent level=DD Live 8900. Short termUpside Potential=(+3,64%): Update 1620: DD Live=8200 still holding up on DJI. If this resistent level breaks, I will Stop out all positions. Consumer Confidence as expectet: Time to bottom pick stocks! Thats the contrarian bet in this market. Goldrush still firm, now trading at USD 736, with an reversed HS, Short term Target 742. Heading for the Gym. Happy trading! Update 1218: Nymex exceed DD Live=64,62, next resistent level BDD High=70. Upside potential (+8,0%) LONG Xcact Bull 27,50: Update 0910: LONG Crew Gold Corp. (CRU) at NOK 0,68. Next resistent level=DD=0,80. Short term potential (+19,5%): COMEX Gold 100 Oz., Dec 2008 (GCZ8): Gold exceeds BDD=751,5, next resistant level is DD=800. Upside potential (+6%): Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-4,94%) LONG WB (+11,48%) LONG KGC(-0,0%) LONG CRU (-13,94%) LONG Xcact BULL (-5,45%)

Active trades P/L: (-12,15%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+154,07 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+141,99%).

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)

Monday Update. Stockpicking US.

2008-10-27T12:26:00.024+01:00

Update 21.30: DJI testet BDD High=8575, and dropped last 30 min to BDD Live= 8200, next support level is BDD Low 7500. I did not get to stop out any possitions. If DJI opens below BDD Live tomorow, all positions will be closed. Good night. Update 14.35:

Stockpick 1:LONG KINROSS GOLD CP. (KGC) at USD 8.58

Stockpick 2: LONG Wachovia Corp. ( WB ) at USD 5.66

DJI: BDD Low= 7500 and BDD High=8575. The outcome of BDD Low/High, gives me short term DD Live=8200. Downside Potential (-10%) and Upside Potential (+2,56%). Short term trading strategy: Stockpicking.
If the support level DD Live=8200 hold/break, and the Candlestick Pattern discover sign of short term revarsal, I will of course post this to you.

Stockpick 1: NYSE: KINROSS GOLD CP (KGC): With BDD Low at 9,24 and BDD High=9,90, The Model give very nice risk reward. Short term Potential (+11,94%): Awaiting the market to open. Execution will be posted.

Stockpick 2: NYSE: Wachovia Corp. (WB): With BDD Low at 6,30 and BDD High=6,70, The Model give very nice risk reward. Short term Potential (+19,50%):Awaiting the market to open. Execution will be posted

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-9,54%) LONG WB (+0,71%) LONG KGC(-10,5%)

Active trades P/L: (-21,78%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+154,07 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+132,36%).

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)
Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns (click)

Sunday Update. No Man`s Land

2008-10-26T13:31:00.025+01:00

Nymex (CLZ8) 8 Hours: BDD Low= 57,5 and BDD High=70. The outcome of BDD Low/High, gives me short term DD Live=64,62. Downside Potential (-12%) and Upside Potential (+7,12%). Short term trading strategy: Hands off.

If the support level DD Live=64,62 hold/break, and the Candlestick Pattern discover sign of short term revarsal, I will of course post this to you: OSEBX 2 Hours: BDD Low= 214 and BDD High=239. The outcome of BDD Low/High, gives me short term Live DD=223. The Head and Shoulder formation activated Friday, is still active, with an intermediate target at 203. Downside Potential (with HS formation): (-7,48%) and Upside Potential: (+8,97%). Short term trading strategy: Hands off.

BDD =214, evince sign of support, given Friday`s session, displayed in chart. If the support level DD Live=223 hold/break, and the Candlestick Pattern discover sign of short term revarsal, I will of course post this to you. Due to the fact that "No Mans`s Land" rules , I will start look for Stockpicks, especially in the US. Here is one for you:

NYSE: KINROSS GOLD CP (KGC): With BDD Low at 9,24, The Model gives very nice risk reward. Upside Potential (+11,94%):

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-9,54%)

Active trades P/L: (-9,54%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+154,07 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+144,53%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)

Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns (click)

Friday Update. Testing Downside.

2008-10-24T09:38:00.034+02:00

Update 16.50: OSEBX 1 hour:Goldean Ocean covered at NOK 7.22. Xcact Bear sold at 183.oo: P/L: GOGL (+36,62%). Xcact Bear (+28,49%). Total P/L: (+65,11%) Update:15.00:OSEBX testing BDD =214. If it appears to close higher than BDD= 214, all shorts will be covered: Update 12.15:Short term trading strategy: If the candle, shown in the chart gets green, all shorts will be covered: OSEBX 1 Hour: Head and Shoulder activated, intermediate potential (-13%): Got lucky with my "greed" (click), from yesterday. Still holding on to my shorts, awaiting BDD=214, to be testet. Short term trading strategy: If OSEBX exceeds "Neckline" in HS formation, shown in the chart, I will close all positions.

Quotations:"Never catch a falling knife!". Should you then throw it?

" There is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage of your enemy" - Miccolo Marchiavelli 1502

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-9,54%)

Active trades P/L: (-9,54%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+154,07 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+144,53%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)
Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns (click)

Thursday U.S Update. Testing Downside

2008-10-23T18:18:00.017+02:00

Update 21.11: U.S Positions closed. QID closed out at USD 80,7. Drys closed out at USD 17,91:P/L DRYS+QID: (+34,99%) Update 21.00: Short term trading strategy: Closing all U.S potitions if the candle shown in the 2 hour cahrt, gets green:Creating a "hammer", in a downtrend marked, indicating a short term reversal: Candlestick Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns Update 20.08: New Head and Shoulder formation activated. Short term potential: (-3,5%) Update 1928: Dow Jones: Head and Shoulder formation. Short term potential (-2,0%): Nasdaq Comp. 8 hours: At the moment testing BDD High= 1610. BDD Low=1422: Rising Wedge in a downtrend market still active. Holding on to my shorts. Tradinstrategy: If Nasdaq exceeds BDD=1610, shortcovering is activated: Active Trades: LONG Xcact BEAR (+7,37%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-3,80%) SHORT GOGL (+7,90%)

Active trades P/L: (+10,87%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+89,03 %) (click)

Total: P/L: (+100,50%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory Now in English!

Thursday Update. Testing Downside.

2008-10-23T10:53:00.016+02:00

Update 18.12: Got greedy, and did not listen to my model regarding the positions in Norway, may result in a bad "Hit" tomorow.
Watch: Wall Street-Greed Is Good ( click)

Update 15.15: Short term tradinstrategy: If OSEBX exceeds BDD=339, Xcact Bear, will be sold, and Goldean Ocean, will be covered.

OSEBX 8 hours: At the moment testing BDD High= 239. BDD Low=214:

This is Monthly Targets, so fluctuations within BDD Low= 214 and BDD High=239, will create short term trading opportunities. Tradefactors can also change along the way, this will of course , be posted to you.

Nymex Month: Short Term Target Failed. BDD High=70. BDD Low=57,5. Potential: (-14,9%)
This is Monthly Targets, so fluctuations within BDD Low= 57,5 and BDD High=70, will create short term trading opportunities. Tradefactors can also change along the way, this will of course , be posted to you.

Active Trades: SHORT DRYS (+18,56%) LONG Xcact BEAR (+7,37%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-n,a%) SHORT GOGL (+7,90%) LONG QID (+3,82%)

Active trades P/L: (+36,17%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+54,03 %)

Total: P/L: (+90,21%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory Now in English!

Wednesday U.S Update. Testing Downside

2008-10-22T19:15:00.018+02:00

Nasdaq Comp. Month: Rising Wedge in a downtrend market, Downside Potential (-20%). DD=1660 Failes, next support level on the downside is BDD High=1610. BDD Low=1422: This is Monthly Targets, so fluctuations within BDD Low= 1422 and BDD High=1610, will create short term trading opportunities. Tradefactors can also change along the way, this will of course , be posted to you.

LONG Ultrashort QQQ (QID) at 76: Click on chart to se execution.Active Trades: SHORT DRYS (+15,29%) LONG Xcact BEAR (+8,74%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-1,5%) SHORT GOGL (+2,11%) LONG QID (+7,07%)
.
Active trades P/L: (+31,73%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+54,03 %)
.
Total P/L: (+85,77%)

" First rule of business, protect your investment" - Etiquette of the banker 1775

" There is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage of your enemy" - Miccolo Marchiavelli 1502
.
Terminology: My Dynamic Theory Now in English!

Wednesday Update. Testing Downside

2008-10-22T11:34:00.020+02:00

Update 13.40: Goldean Ocean: Rising Wedge. Downside Potential: (-11%):
SHORT GOGL at 9.70: Update 13.28:OSEBX: Head and Shoulder Formation, short term potential (-2.67%): Nymex Month: Short Term Target Failed. BDD High=70. BDD Low=57,5. Potential: (-13%) OSEBX Month: DD=264 Failed. BDD High=239. BDD Low=214. Downside Potential: (-14%) This is Monthly Targets, so fluctuations within BDD Low= 214 and BDD High=239, will create short term trading opportunities. Tradefactors can also change along the way, this will of course , be posted to you. OSEBX 8 Hours: Active Trades: SHORT DRYS (+10,59%) LONG Xcact BEAR (+8,74%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-0,07%) SHORT GOGL (2,11%)

Active trades P/L: (+22,82%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+54,03 %)

Total P/L: (+75,39%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory Now in English!

Stop Loss QQQQ. Sold at USD 31,55

2008-10-22T06:47:00.001+02:00

Nasdaq: DD=1700 Failed. Stop loss activated: P/L QQQQ: (+2,5%)

Active Trades: SHORT DRYS (+2,09%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-1,44%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +2.9%)

Active trades Profit/Loss: (+3,58%)
Executed Trades Profit/Loss: (+54,03 %)

Total P/L: (+57,52%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory Now in English!

SHORT DRYS USD 23. Target USD 20. Head and Shoulder Formation.

2008-10-22T05:29:00.001+02:00

SHORT DRYS at USD 23: Profit Potential (-15%)

Stop Loss at 24,20.

Intraday Google Inc. LONG order, out at 363,20.

2008-10-22T04:29:00.000+02:00

If Google Inc. meets "dynamic deviation"=DD1=363, I will try to buy it. LONG order out at 363,20:
Update 21.23 (Norwegian time): Order Cancelled.
Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

LONG Xcact BEAR 142,5

2008-10-22T02:18:00.000+02:00

LONG Xcact BEAR 142,5:

Osebx prøvde seg idag opp mot DA 264, men orket ikke, noe som vises godt på det siste candle: "Spinning Top", med en liten "kropp"+ lange "skygger" begge veier. Et slikt pattern med 3 White Soldiers + Spinning Top, kan tyde på at vi får en kortsiktig reversal, ned mot DA=248, og mulig BAK 240,5. Osebx møter også range motstand, som vist i chartet. God risk reward.

Candlestick Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns

Active trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +5.5%) LONG QQQQ (+5,69%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-1,44%)

Ser etter Intraday LONG/SHORT for US.

Tuesday Update.

2008-10-21T17:16:00.000+02:00

Salg SDRL 62,70+ Xcact BULL 37,60: correction:38,60Gev/Tap: SDRL (+26%). Xcact BULL + (4,96%)
Total: +28,24%

Active trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +5.5%) LONG QQQQ (+7,99%)

Executed Trades Profit/Loss: (+51,54 %).
Active trades Profit/Loss: (+13,51%).

Total P/L : (+65,05%).

Update kl. 1247: Kortsiktig salgsstrategi: Om dagens candle skulle bli rød, eller utvikle seg til en "Doji", kan det tyde på at vi skal ned å teste gamle støtte/motstandsnivåer, selger da oljeeksponering. Candlestick Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns

Jeg tar foreløpig utgangsunkt i KEY REVERSAL PATTERNS , lagt ut 19. Oktober , så får vi se hvor langt det kan gå. Liten sansynlighet for at jeg klarer å selge på topp, vil derfor se om diverse dynamiske avvik holder. På OSEBX, er nå stop loss nivået mitt 240,5= Beste Agerings Kurs (BAK). For SDRL, er stop loss nivået 53,5=BAK. Samme strategi for QQQQ i US.

OSEBX: Neste motstand="DA Low"=264. Nymex (CLZ8):Neste motstand="Short term Target"=76,5: SDRL: Neste motstand="DA Low"=67: Nasdaq Futures (NQZ8): TED Spread:Value2.83, Change-5.136%,Chart the Performance of .TEDSP:IND

Active trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +5.5%) LONG QQQQ (+7,99%)

For terminologi: See My Dynamic Theory .

Intraday LONG Google Inc. 364,39.

2008-10-21T04:51:00.000+02:00

GOOG: Bought at 364,39. Click on chart to see execution. Stop Loss 359,8 Sales order out at USD 379: Profit Potential +4%. Google Inc. Sold at 379: Intraday Profit: (+4,01%)

Active trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +5.5%) LONG QQQQ (+7,99%) LONG Xcact BULL (-1,56%) LONG SDRL (+19,60%)

Executed Trades Profit/Loss: +20,58%.
Active trades Profit/Loss: +31,54%.

Total P/L : +52,12%

For terminologi: See My Dynamic Theory .

Monday Update.

2008-10-20T20:27:00.000+02:00

Nymex - Crude Oil, Light Sweet, Dec 2008: "Cup with a handle". Short term Target 76,5 OSEBX: Bryter BAK=240,5 videre oppgang til DA=264 ventes. SDRL: Bryter BAK=53,5. Videre oppgang til DA3=67 ventes. Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +4.1%) LONG QQQQ (+5,59%) LONG Xcact BULL (-1,56%) LONG SDRL (+19,60%)

Realisert Gev/Tap: +16,57%.
Urealisert Gev/Tap: +27,67%.
Total : +44,24%

For terminologi: Se My Dynamic Theory .

KEY REVERSAL PATTERNS

2008-10-20T06:50:00.000+02:00

OSEBX, Key Reversal: Potensial +32% within 2 weeks. Click to enhance: NASCOMP,Key Reversal: Potential +13% within 5 days.
Nymex - Crude Oil, Light Sweet, Dec 2008, Key Reversal: Potential +27% within 30 days.Candlestick Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns
Oil News: TheOilTrader

Warren Buffet quotation, 17.10.08 CNBC: "Those awaiting a 'better time' for equity investing are highly likely to maintain that posture until well into the next bull market".

Se tidligere innlegg:

1:Bunnen satt. It`s all about Technology!

2: Hva skjer nå?

Andre innlegg:

1: Where's the Smartest Money Investing?.

2: Bargain Buys For Patient Investors.

Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +2.7%) LONG QQQQ (+6,27%) LONG Xcact BULL (-15,16%) LONG SDRL (-0,20%)

Realisert Gev/Tap: +16,57%.

Urealisert Gev/Tap: -6,39%.

For terminologi: My Dynamic Theory

USD/NOK. Downside Potential -13,5%

2008-10-20T06:45:00.000+02:00

USD/NOK, Month: Short Term Target=BAK 6,20= -4,90% Candlestick pattern= "3 white soldiers+Bearish Harami Cross"=Reversal. USD/NOK, Day: USD/NOK vs Nymex - Crude Oil, Light Sweet, Dec 2008: Dynamic Terminologi: My Dynamic Theory
Candlestick Terminologi: Candlestick Patterns

Happy Trading!

SDRL. Potensial +38,5%. LONG SDRL 49,75

2008-10-17T20:33:00.000+02:00

SDRL: SDRL møter Dynamisk støtte DA1=48,33. Ifølge min dynamiske modell, vil brudd av BAK 53,5( DA2=BAK), utløse en oppgang til DA3= 67,11 ca. 38% oppgang fra dagens nivåer. Forutsatt overstående, vil hovedmotstand være BAK=DA2=53,5. DA1 kan undershoote noe, så Stop Loss settes til 47,80

Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +2.7%) LONG QQQQ (+6,27%) LONG Xcact BULL (-15,16%) LONG SDRL (-0,20%)

Realisert Gev/Tap: +16,57%
Urealisert Gev/Tap: -6,39%
Total: +10,18%

For terminologi: Se Min dynamiske modell.

Sold TAA at 73,30.

2008-10-17T19:55:00.001+02:00

TAA: P/L: +8,11%

OSEBX underperforming 3,97%. Buy!

2008-10-17T19:13:00.000+02:00

Osebx vs Oil (CLZ8) and Nasdaq Futures (NQZ8), 15min:

OSEBX. Potensiell oppgang +17%.

2008-10-17T08:50:00.000+02:00

OSEBX: Ifølge min dynamiske modell, vil brudd av BAK 240,5 utløse en oppgang til DA1= 248, ca. 10% oppgang fra dagens nivåer. Videre oppgang forventes ved brudd av DA1=248, med potensiale opp til DA3= 264, ca 17% oppgang. Forutsatt overstående, vil hovedmotstand være BAK=240,5.

For terminologi: Se Min dynamiske modell.

Fasten your seatbelts, get ready for Rally.

2008-10-17T06:02:00.000+02:00

Nasdaq 15min:Nasdaq 1 hour:

Nasdaq tar imot på BAK 1621,5. Oppgang til 1660 ventes. LONG QQQ 30,78

2008-10-17T04:04:00.000+02:00

Nasdaq:

Signifikant kortsiktig BULL formasjon "Cup with a handle". Potensiale opp til 1730. Bull!
Se forklaring: "Cup with a handle".

For terminologi: Se Min dynamiske modell.

Nasdaq Futures(NQZ8). Dobbel bunn.

2008-10-17T00:12:00.000+02:00

NQZ8: Kortsiktig tradingrange 1220-1400?.

Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( -2.3%) LONG TAA (-2,06%) LONG Xcact BULL1 (-27,12%) LONG Xcact BULL2 (-6,52%)

For Total Gev/Tap Se: ExecutedTrades

Flaggformation in TAA. Target 73

2008-10-16T21:50:00.000+02:00

TAA:

Nymex - Crude Oil (CLZ8).NASCOMP. What to do?

2008-10-16T21:07:00.000+02:00

CLZ8-Month:Nymex brøt under DA 75,79, og ligger nå på BAK month 72,25, med kortsiktig target opp til DA 75,79. Kjøpte Xcact BULL igår på 41,30 (-22%), hvor strategien gikk på at DA 75,79 skulle holde. Da dette ikke har skjedd må jeg enten stoppe ut posisjonen her, eller håpe på at BAK holder, og DA 75,79 igjen skal testes. Jeg velger det siste. When in truoble double:LONG Xcact Bull 32,25=snitt 36,75. 2x eksponering gjør det til at Stop Loss igjen settes super tight, og jeg velger å bruke Nymex som katalysator for agering. BAK kan undershoote noe, og Stop Loss settes derfor til 71,60.

CLZ8-4 hours: NASCOMP-1 hour: Nasdaq brøt igår under DA 1660, og nedgang DA 1560 ventes (dobbel bunn?).

Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( -2.3%) LONG TAA (-4,13%) LONG Xcact BULL1 (-22,62%) LONG Xcact BULL2 (-0,0%)

For Oil News se: TheOilTrader
For terminologi: Se Min dynamiske modell.

Stop Loss

2008-10-16T06:58:00.000+02:00

Solgt LONG GOOG 341,6 (-5,11%)
Solgt LONG QQQQ 30,85 (-6,46%)

Nasdaq brøt under DA 1660, og videre nedgang til DA 1560 ventes. Forutsatt DA 1660 og DA 1560, blir beste agerings kurs (heretter kalt BAK) 1621,5. Altså, brudd under BAK 1621,5=DA1560. Brudd under DA 1560, er neste stopp DA 1470. Holder BAK, så er det DA 1660,1777,1850 osv. som gjelder.

Gev/Tap: -11,57%

For Total Gev/Tap Se: ExecutedTrades

Aktive trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( -2.3%) LONG TAA (-0,9%) LONG Xcact BULL (-11,62%)

Apatien inntok. Nasdaq holder dynamisk avvik 1660.

2008-10-16T06:46:00.000+02:00

Nasdaq closet såvidt over Dynamisk avvik (heretter DA) 1777 igår, og Stop Loss ble ikke aktivert. Er nå nede å tester DA 1660, og Stop Loss er enda ikke aktivert. Closer den under så ryker LONG QQQQ (-5,82%) og LONG GOOG(-4,17%) rett ut.

Nymex - Crude Oil, Light Sweet, Dec 2008.

2008-10-16T02:20:00.000+02:00

Dynamisk støtte holder foreløpig, stop loss for LONG Xcact BULL 41,30 aktiveres om den skulle bryte under.
Aktive trades: LONG QQQQ ( -1,46%) LONG GOOG(-3,22%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +n.a%) LONG TAA (-0,9%) LONG Xcact BULL (-11,62%)

Nymex - Crude Oil, Light Sweet, Dec 2008 bunner ut.LONG Xcact BULL 41,30.

2008-10-15T23:15:00.000+02:00

Olje møter dynamisk støtte USD 75,79. Dette er en meget kortsiktig trade, da det er Tech jeg har tro på fremover.

Aktive trades: LONG QQQQ ( -0,45%) LONG GOOG(-2,79%) LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S ( +n.a%) LONG TAA (+3,39%) LONG Xcact BULL (-7,99%)