Friday Update. Testing Downside

OSEBX 6Hours- Has broken out of "The Rising Wedge". DDHigh=202 appears as the short term support level. If Osebx breaks DDHigh on the downside, next support level is BDD=190,74 (-9%)DJI Futures 8Hours- At the moment trading belove BDD 8507 and has broken out of "The Bearish Rising Wedge". Next support level is DDLow=7567 (-9%)

Thursday Update. Bull Trap!

Trading Strategy: Awaiting BDD`s at OSEBX and DJI to be tested, respective 190,74 and 8507. Holding on to my shorts.

OSEBX:

DJI:
Seeking Alpha- Thursday Outlook: Bulls Come on Strong

Nymex vs OSEBX comparative daily: Osebx has outperformed Nymex by +27% since the start of December. Six Month Correlation evince that the gap again will close. Looks like many are betting on a jump in the oil price....Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,63%) LONG LCAPA (+7,09%) SHORT SDRL (-12,63%) SHORT REC ( +4,91% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-20,00%) LONG DUG (-11,74%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-51,99%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+191,43%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Wednesday Update. Bull Trap!

Seeking Alpha- Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

COUNCIL on FOREIGN RELATIONS- Global trade is shrinking, fast

U.S NEWS- Even With a Bailout, Automakers Would Still Be Running on Fumes. Call it a starter bailout. And get ready for a second, a third, or even a fourth....

Seeking Alpha- Preview from Europe: Market Rally Was Running on Empty

DAX- Bull Trap, with "The Bearish Rising Wedge". Downside Potential (-8,5%)

OSEBX- Bull Trap, with "The Bearish Rising Wedge". A bull trap often causes some investors to buy the stock, but because the stock continues to decline after the initial signal, those who bought in are "trapped" in a bad investment. A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. BDD=190,74 Downside Potential (-10,5%)Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-16,32%) LONG LCAPA (+7,09%) SHORT SDRL (-11,72%) SHORT REC ( +0,67% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-15,81%) LONG DUG (-12,47%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-48,56%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+194,86%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Tuesday Update. Quiet before the storm?

Seeking Alpha: The Economic Debate: Did We Need Government Intervention?


US Update 1500:DJI Futures Daily-Potential "Evening Star". BDD=8507. Short term downside potential (-3,5%)

Nymex Daily- Potential "Evening Star". A bearish reversal pattern that continues an uptrend with a long white body day followed by a gapped up small body day, then a down close with the close below the midpoint of the first day. BDD 41,24 (-6,3%):OSEBX, DJI- See Monday Update.

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-16,99%) LONG LCAPA (+8,21%) SHORT SDRL (-4,12%) SHORT REC ( +0,17% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-11,55%) LONG DUG (-3,75%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-28,02%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+215,40%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Monday Update.

DJI- Tested DDHigh=9067 during todays session, with the highest print at 9025. Awaiting BDD=8507 to be tested within the next two trading sessions. With the assumption that DDHigh is the longer term resistence level, " The Bearish Rising Wedge" has widen, and the market has created further downside. With todays close, short term risk reward is (+1,8%/-4,42%). Long term ( two months ) risk reward is (+1,8%/-24,8%):OSEBX-Overshooted DDHigh=202 by (+3,28%), and closed todays session in top of 2,5 months trading range. Awaiting BDD 190,74 (-8,41%) to be tested within the two next trading sessions. With the assumption that DDHigh is the longer term resistence level, market has created further downside. With todays close short term risk reward is (-3,17%/-5,47%)=(202/190,7). Long term (2,5 months) risk reward is (-3,17%/-22,69%)=(202/160) Extreme good downside risk reward!
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Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,92%) LONG LCAPA (+1,12%) SHORT SDRL (-0,97%) SHORT REC ( -10,34% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (-8,24%) LONG DUG (-3,43%) (click)

Active Trades P/L: (-41,79%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+201,63%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Sunday Update. New lows?

Some of my thoughts: Typically we often experience that in a Bull Marked, traders sell their positions before the weekend, so they can have a good nights sleep, and don’t worry about their longs. This “fear” creates a short term sell off. In a Bear Marked the same traders cover their shorts of the same reason. I believe that Friday’s late session rally was caused by this phenomenon. This makes room for a downtrend trading of futures, during Monday’s European session. With this taken in to consideration, I would sell stocks, if the futures are trading on higher levels, during early Monday session. Almost every broker, trader and investor have the same “Devils eye“ on the futures screen during the day, and taking their bets of the same reasons. I believe it is important to find out what is the contrarian side of the marked, all tough it hurts some times. When your stomach says BUY, you should actually SELL, and vice versa. Why does the "slow lane" go faster than the “fast lane” in traffic jams?
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USD strength continues....
This makes the price elasticity for goods and commodities stretched, and short term demand will go down. It creates further inflacion in a market place showing signs of receccion.... This will over the longer term create deflationary spirals. The Domino Effect. Look for a breakout of "The Bullish Wedge Pattern" USD/NOK: Target USD/NOK 8,10Seeking Alpha: Defining Deflation
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" The Invisible hand, suddely gets very Visible ":
Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak", it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!
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From the book by James Grant: “Market Miscalculates”:
"Economics, mistaking itself for physics, is wont to turn up its nose at history, but the past has much to teach"; "as dress on Wall Street has become more casual, so have the monetary arrangements... the gold standard and swallowtail coats have given way to Greenspan and open-neck shirts"
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OSEBX 6Hours- "Bearish Three Black Crows": Three long red days with consecutively lower closes act as a strong indicator, certainly the very definition of a downtrend, and almost assuring future bearish trends. BDD=190,74 DDHigh=202,00 DDLow=180,35 gives short term risk reward (+6,14%/-5,22%). Long term risk reward within given trend and with "the three black crows" taken into consideration is (+5,11%/-20,56%).

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Trading Strategy: Due to the fact that OSEBX is trading close to the top of range, and the bearish undertone, I`ll hold on to my shorts.DJI 8Hours- "The Bearish Rising Wedge": The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. BDD=8507 DDHigh=9067 DDLow=7567 gives short term risk reward (+4,55%/-12,75%). Long term risk reward within given trend and with "the wedge" taken into consideration is (+4,55%/-18,70%)

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Trading Strategy: Due to the fact that DJI is trading close to the top of range, and the bearish undertone, I`ll hold on to my shorts. Looking out for Stock Picks.Stock Pick 1: HNT (Health Net Inc.) : BDD= 11,17 (+15,47%) DDLow=11,45 DDHigh=13,95 (+44,76%). Extreme good risk reward!Stock Pick 2: OFIX (Orthofix International NV): BDD=15,10 DDLow=14,65 DDHigh=17,15 (+20%) Extreme good risk reward!Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-19,91%) LONG LCAPA (-6,72%) SHORT SDRL (+15,15%) SHORT REC ( -2,76% ) LONG Xcact BEAR (+15,15%) LONG DUG (+6,70%) (click)

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Active Trades P/L: (+7,91%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+243,42 %) (click)

Total P/L: (+251,33%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory