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lørdag 15. november 2008

Sunday Update. Get ready for Rally!!!

Dow Jones Index: The Stick Sandwitch with an Inverted Head and Shoulder, where the Stick Sandwitch appears as the right shoulder in the formation.

The Stick Sandwitch: A bullish reversal pattern with two red bodies surrounding a green body. A support prices is apparent and the opportunity for prices to reverse is quite good.
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Inverted Head and Shoulder: Head=DDLow 8290 Neckline=DDHigh 8860 (DDHigh-Neckline)=570 points. (Neckline+570)= HS Target 9430.
Short term HS Upside Potential: (+11%)

Dynamic Deviations: Short term: DDLow=8290 BDD=8575 DDHigh=8860. Risk Reward Calcuation (-2,3%/+4,4%) Good RR.Nymex: The Stick Sandwitch, with DDHigh=64,91.
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Dynamic Deviations: Short term: BDD=57,5 DDLow=59,87 DDHigh=64,91. Risk Reward Calculation (+2,70%/+15,64%) Extreme good RR! Upside Potential (+15,64%)OSEBX: The Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap

The Bullish Upside Tasuki Gap: The pattern is characterized by two green candlesticks with a gap upward between them. However the pattern also shows a red candlestick on the third day partially closing the gap between the first two. The red candlestick is the result of temporary profit taking. I expect the trend to continue upward following the direction of the upward gap.

Dynamic Deviatons: Short term: DDLow=233,10 BDD=237,5 DDHigh=245,20. Risk Reward Calculation (+5%/+10%) Extreme good RR!:Stock Pick 1: Google Inc: Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern.

Inverted Head and Shoulder: Head= 280. Neckline=DDLow 310. (DDLow-Neckline)=30 points. (Neckline+30)= HS Target 340. HS Upside Potential (+9,5%)

Dynamic Deviations: Short term: DDLow=310 BDD=215,68 DDHigh=332,47. Risk Reward Calculation (+0,0%/+7,48%) Extreme good RR!:Some of my thoughts: In recent trading environment it has been wide ranges and extreme volatility, giving fantastic trading opportunities. Now I believe that the market place find itself in a short term state of equilibrium, giving the fact that many instruments are trading close to my Best Dynamic Deviation. Short term shorts has been covered and short term longs has been sold. With this taken in to consideration, I think that in the forthcoming couple of months we will experience that the volatility (VIX), will show signs of stabilisation, giving more narrow trading ranges. With this said, it is important to adjust your trading strategy, and actually get less greedy on your positions. Many traders have got used to trading profits exceeding 20% in many cases, myself included. Maybe we should be happy with 5-10% in the weeks to come…

Happy Trading!

TMT MAN-Hva skjer nå? (click)


Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-8,60%) LONG VMED (+1,29%) LONG Xcact BULL (-2,55%) LONG DIG (+1,64%)

Active Trades P/L: (-8,23%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+266,42%)

Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Terminology: Candlestick Patterns

fredag 14. november 2008

Friday Update. Testing Upside

Update 1715: ETF:Nymex is trading close to DD Low 55,62. Awaiting BDD 57,5 to be tested. LONG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (DIG) at USD 29,93: Update 1700: OSEBX: Appear to be closing belove DD Live 226,60. Due to the fact that DJI appears to find short term support level at BDD=8575, I choose to get greedy on this one. May result in a bad hit on Monday. Greed is good! (click)

Update 1545,DJI: Exceed BDD=8575. Next resistent level DD High 8901. DD Low 8431. Risk reward (+1,7% / -1,7%): DD Live=8744
Update 1136, Nymex: Exceed BDD=57,5. Next resistent level DD High=61,20. DD Low=55,62. Risk reward (+6,23% / -3,37% ) LONG Xcact BULL at 27,70. OSEBX is trading around DD Live: Trading strategy: Awaiting BDD=239 to be tested: If OSEBX appears to be closing belove DD Live, stop loss will be initiated.OSEBX: DD Live=226,60 DD High=246 DD Low=201,20 BDD=239: Short term risk reward (-12%/+7%) Trading Strategy: Hands off. Awaiting some of the DD`s to be activated, either on the upside or downside.:Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-8,60%) LONG VMED (+1,29%) LONG Xcact BULL (-2,55%) LONG DIG (1,64%)

Active Trades: (-8,23%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)

Total P/L: (+266,42%)


Terminology: My Dynamic Theory (click)

torsdag 13. november 2008

Thursday U.S Update. Testing DD Low?

Update 2305: VMED exceed DD Low=5,34. Next resistent level BDD=5,75.DD High= 8,33. Intermediate upside potential (+52,84%)Stockpick 1: Virgin Media Inc.: LONG VMED at USD 4,64: DD Low=5,34 BDD=5,75 DD High=8,33. Short term upside potential (+13%) Update 1738: Trading strategy: Stockpicking US. This will be posted, when executed. If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, DUG will be sold. Update 2111: DJI exceed DD Live, DUG sold at 41,44 (+5,98%)

Update 1700: Osebx appear to be closing above DD Live 215,75: All Shorts Covered. REC bought at 57,70 (+30,85%) SDRL 59,30 (+18,89%) STL 114,3 (+11,11%) Xcact BEAR 164,10 (+1,20%)
Total P/L: (+62,05%)

US Update 1546: Trading strategy: If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, DUG will be sold:Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-3,81%) LONG VMED (+17,03%)

Active Trades: (+13,22%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+276,28%) (click)


Total P/L: (+289,50%)


Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

Thursday Update. Testing Dynamic Deviation Low?

OSEBX: DD Live=215,75 DD Low=201,5 BDD=239. Trading strategy: Awaiting DD Live to be broken on the downside. If OSEBX appear to close above DD Live, all shorts will be covered:

onsdag 12. november 2008

Wednesday Update. Testing Best Dynamic Deviations

Trading strategy 1515: If OSEBX exceed DD Live=233 ( down from DD High=245 ), all shorts will be covered.

US Update 1455: DJI 1 hour: Testing BDD=8575. DDLive=8431 DD High=8681: Trading strategy 1955: If DJI exceed DD Live=8431, all short will be covered
OSEBX 2 hours: Testing BDD=239. Trading strategy: Awaiting BDD to be broken on the downside. Trading strategy: If OSEBX exceed DD High=245, all shorts will be covered. HS target from Sunday Update (click)=224,90 DDLive=233. DD Low=201 Nymex 2 hours:Testing BDD=57,5 DDHigh=61,12 DDLow=55,62: Risk reward (+4,19/-5,22%):Nymex VS Nasdaq Comperative: Gap widens: Seeking Alpha: Wednesday Outlook: Whiplash (click)
Seeking Alpha: Are Stocks Really Cheap?

Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-6,76%) LONG Xcact BEAR (+2,26%) SHORT STL (+12,89%) LONG DUG (+15,75%) SHORT REC (+43,81%) SHORT SDRL (+24,34%) (click)


Active Trades: (+92,29%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %) (click)


Total P/L: (+300,54%)

tirsdag 11. november 2008

Tuesday Update. Testing Downside

US Update 1852:DJI: Testing BDD=8575. Trading Strategy: Holding on to my shorts. If DJI exceed DD High 8901, all shorts will be covered. New DD Live= 8431.

US Update 1520:DJI: Important levels DD Live/DD High= 8901, now appears as a resistent level. Next support level = BDD 8575.Update 1505: Nymex 1 Hour: Head and Shoulder. HS short term Downside Potential (-6,5%). BDD=57,5:OSEBX 2 Hours: Important levels: DD High/Live 246 BDD=239 DD Low=233. At this point 246 appear to be the short term support level until broken on the downside. DD Low Downside Potential (-5,82%): Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (-0,30%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-13,00%) SHORT STL (+0,79%) LONG DUG (+1,79%) SHORT REC (+20,61%) SHORT SDRL (+12,26%)

Active Trades: (+22,14%)

Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)

Total P/L: (+230,39%)



Terminology: My Dynamic Theory

mandag 10. november 2008

Monday Update. The invisible hand gets very visible!

Monday toughts: Desperate times calls for desperate measures. Capitalism is a system depended on growth to function, and is a sytem where the strongest survive (Darwin ). Now when the goverments all over the world bail out the "weak" in the system, it threatens the evolution of capitalism and creates disturbance in the force. The stimulus plans made by different countries around the world these days will only make the reseccion time longer and deeper. We have to let "nature" run its course, and the weak go down with it!

DJI 1840: Breaks DDLive/High 8901. Next support level is BDD 8575: Downside Potential (-4%)
OSEBX 1520: "The Evening Star" Confirmed:
US Update 1515: See Sunday Update!
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Update 1125: OSEBX: Is trading in top of range, and meet DD High 265,20.
SHORT SDRL at 70,50:
Active Trades: LONG TMT Tech Basket U.S (+4,66%) LONG Xcact BEAR (-21,25%) SHORT STL (-4,87%) LONG DUG (-4,60%) SHORT REC (+11,19%) SHORT SDRL (+3,98%)
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Active Trades: (-10,88%)
Executed Trades P/L: (+208,25 %)
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Total P/L: (+197,37%)
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Terminology: My Dynamic Theory